Playoff updates are always a point of controversy every year. Part of the way we did it in the past has to do with time and statistics and not wanting to have to look up every player individually but instead can grab the whole league stats and apply formulas across the board to upload bye and post-season game updates efficiently. That was especially time-saving when dealing with players who may have played games where they didn't record a catch or pass where our stat resource wouldn't recognize that as a game played other than researching individually at other sites.
As mentioned before, my thoughts on getting past that was to make these changes:
- For averaged game updates (both bye weeks and playoffs) use actual game averages instead of dividing totals by the same number for all. I'll change where we get the stats or do more individual lookups or whatever.
- Continue to recognize real injuries and mirror reality as we try so a severely injured player in the wildcard round in reality doesn't go on to be sim super bowl MVP, but also now have the option of taking a REAL playoff game update instead of an averaged game if the real game for that round is better than the averaged update. That hopefully will make the playoffs a little less predictable and recognize that a QB/RB who gets hot in the playoffs in reality to carry his team could do so here also. Also fair to give advantages as well as disadvantages to playoff players still active, also consistent with using real game updates throughout regular season and rewarding the guys who perform on the field in reality the best.
- For players whose real teams don't make the playoffs we'd use averaged game updates as usual (but with individual games now), but alter their injury status less subjectively. Instead of me trying to research a player's situation and guestimate, we'll just use a standard scale for everyone no longer active of raising them up one injury level (from questionable -> probable, etc.) for each round or two across the board other than players on IR or truly out for the year. If non-playoff player questionable in week 17, he'd be moved up on level to probable for round 1 automatically if not in playoffs for real injury update. Those varying injury levels will not only impact the grade (questionable players get grade knocked down as not as helpful on field hurt) but also impact the averaged game update (questionable guy might get 50% update, probable guy 75% update, etc.). That could be more fair across the board, but also perhaps missing some unique player information as we've considered before on a case-by-case basis. For players still active we'd use the real injury report related to their real specific situation, but players not in playoffs need some kind of injury assessment policy whether subjective judgement or automatic adjustment.
We've talked about the playoffs quite a bit every year, and hopefully moving toward solutions that work for more.
09 Rules: Playoffs
09 Rules: Playoffs
Official Statement from the Commissioner's Office
Re: 09 Rules: Playoffs
Looks like most are in support of the proposed playoff changes using individual game averages, an option to use real playoff games when better than averaged update, and automatic incremental injury scale adjustment each round. For now the requirement will be that GMs have to contact me if they want to use a real playoff game update for that same sim playoff round, but we may work out a formula to compare averaged updates to real updates and use the better automatically also as time/resources permit.
That automatic injury adjustment was the least supported it looks like, but next year we will have various injury levels (not just OUT or not), so would be very difficult to make subjective case-by-case decisions on whether a player who isn't really in the playoffs but is in the sim playoffs and hobbled at the end of the regular season is "questionable" or "probable" for sim games. Real players still in the playoffs will have ongoing injury list reports, but ones out of the real playoffs won't and in the past we'd relied upon judgement to say whether they'd reasonably be healthy, 50%, or out.
- Before the playoffs begin, we'll take Week 17 injury status and move up one level (doubtful to questionable, questionable to probable, probable to healthy, etc.). The only exception would be players on IR who obviously should not be made healthy, or players who are officially listed as "OUT" with reports of out for the season and no chance of returning will not be made healthy. For the borderline cases like Reggie Bush last year with some report of would not be put on IR if team headed to playoffs, we can move from OUT up one level to doubtful.
- We will make another jump in injury status before the sim super bowl, so two injury adjustments over the post-season before it starts and before the big game for teams with those extra two weeks to get players into the ultimate game.
- If an actual post-season player is eliminated in reality but his sim self continues in the sim playoffs, we will boost him up one level from his REAL injury status from his last real playoff game for his next sim playoff game. Then no upgrades in health again until if he is in the super bowl. So if a real player really "questionable" in a real wild card game and his real team loses but his sim team advances in reality, he'd be "probable" for future sim playoff games and then 100% for the super bowl.
- The injury level will impact the averaged weekly update and grades in applicable cases. Someone who is probable wouldn't get a 100% update with full amount of averaged carries in their update, but a lesser percent (say 90%) while a doubtful player might get only 25% update and questionable 50%.
- The exact scale subject to further discussion (and sim testing) before games this fall as feedback warrants, but know that less healthy players will get hit harder in the sim this year -- not just in the playoffs but regular season too. That will be balanced a bit by using their individual game averages for averaged updates to help oft-injured players there. But throughout the regular season the injury level (full injury reports will be loaded each week with injury level for all players) and grades adjusted accordingly so that a player who is doubtful will not get his full grade impact on the game but a smaller percentage. This will prevent cases where someone who is questionable and doesn't play but wasn't marked out won't contribute strongly to a team's strength grades when he might not even play in reality.
That automatic injury adjustment was the least supported it looks like, but next year we will have various injury levels (not just OUT or not), so would be very difficult to make subjective case-by-case decisions on whether a player who isn't really in the playoffs but is in the sim playoffs and hobbled at the end of the regular season is "questionable" or "probable" for sim games. Real players still in the playoffs will have ongoing injury list reports, but ones out of the real playoffs won't and in the past we'd relied upon judgement to say whether they'd reasonably be healthy, 50%, or out.
For next year involving sim playoff players who are no longer in the real playoffs...The NFL injury report is broken down into four categories: out, doubtful, questionable and probable. If a player is listed as out - he won't play.
If a player is doubtful, there's a 75 percent chance he won't play. Questionable means the chances are 50-50 while probable means there's a virtual certainty the player will be ready for action.
- Before the playoffs begin, we'll take Week 17 injury status and move up one level (doubtful to questionable, questionable to probable, probable to healthy, etc.). The only exception would be players on IR who obviously should not be made healthy, or players who are officially listed as "OUT" with reports of out for the season and no chance of returning will not be made healthy. For the borderline cases like Reggie Bush last year with some report of would not be put on IR if team headed to playoffs, we can move from OUT up one level to doubtful.
- We will make another jump in injury status before the sim super bowl, so two injury adjustments over the post-season before it starts and before the big game for teams with those extra two weeks to get players into the ultimate game.
- If an actual post-season player is eliminated in reality but his sim self continues in the sim playoffs, we will boost him up one level from his REAL injury status from his last real playoff game for his next sim playoff game. Then no upgrades in health again until if he is in the super bowl. So if a real player really "questionable" in a real wild card game and his real team loses but his sim team advances in reality, he'd be "probable" for future sim playoff games and then 100% for the super bowl.
- The injury level will impact the averaged weekly update and grades in applicable cases. Someone who is probable wouldn't get a 100% update with full amount of averaged carries in their update, but a lesser percent (say 90%) while a doubtful player might get only 25% update and questionable 50%.
- The exact scale subject to further discussion (and sim testing) before games this fall as feedback warrants, but know that less healthy players will get hit harder in the sim this year -- not just in the playoffs but regular season too. That will be balanced a bit by using their individual game averages for averaged updates to help oft-injured players there. But throughout the regular season the injury level (full injury reports will be loaded each week with injury level for all players) and grades adjusted accordingly so that a player who is doubtful will not get his full grade impact on the game but a smaller percentage. This will prevent cases where someone who is questionable and doesn't play but wasn't marked out won't contribute strongly to a team's strength grades when he might not even play in reality.
Official Statement from the Commissioner's Office