Re: Off-Season Rules Discussion - Open Mike
Posted: Sun Apr 02, 2017 12:46 pm
I think we'll find examples on all sides for LTC (less than, greater than, and about what they should be) but the aim is a system that generates good figures on average across the board for most on the whole.
Looking at my AFFL team, I don't have a lot of LTC options but one that jumps out is if I wanted to sign Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (grade 76 guard) a year early before his free agency. He signed an extension in the NFL this off-season (five-year, $41.25M).
If I wanted to sign him to 5-year LTC here, I get these generated prices.
Average LTC salary: $6,268,180, Signing bonus for 5-year: $12,536,360.
He got a $10M SB in the NFL plus his 2017 and 2018 base salaries for guaranteed money. Our sim guaranteed money is the $12.5M SB for that LTC here. Seems realistic for what he got in NFL.
He'll make smaller base salaries in the NFL compared to here for two years, but then his salaries go up to 3.3M, 6.2M, 6.45M, 6.7M and 7.95M. Here he'd make 6.2M for all years under the deal. That seems reasonable compared to most of the years under his new NFL deal, but higher than reality on the first seasons with lower NFL salaries.
If we went with a median salary instead of the LTC average, that uses $5M instead of 6.2M. If we took out the highest and lowest from his LTC considered salaries that puts him at 6.06 instead of 6.2. If we looked at top 15 instead of top 10 salaries for the average, it took the LTC down to 5.3M.
I think the LTC generated in this case is somewhat reasonable, especially considering how important lineman are in our game and the prices people will pay for them on the market. Maybe a little high (especially compared to his next two NFL seasons), but also a balances out with a little low compared to his higher paid future NFL season ahead after that.
The easiest LTC adjustment would probably be adding more players to the average (such as top 15 instead of top 10) or using the median. Both of those result in similar figures in this example and about a million less for LTC.
If we did something like that to knock LTC down slightly, I'd also want to check the more elite players and make sure such a change didn't create bargain bins for top talent at lower costs. I believe we added some elite player LTC protections previously (at least 75% of tag value for A-grade players) but want to make sure we don't create other problems lowering LTC generally.
I temporarily adjusted the LTC calculations while we're frozen to consider top 15 instead of top 10 in order to look around to see examples of that impact. If that gives us better results, it'll be an easy fix to make permanent.
Looking at my AFFL team, I don't have a lot of LTC options but one that jumps out is if I wanted to sign Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (grade 76 guard) a year early before his free agency. He signed an extension in the NFL this off-season (five-year, $41.25M).
If I wanted to sign him to 5-year LTC here, I get these generated prices.
Average LTC salary: $6,268,180, Signing bonus for 5-year: $12,536,360.
He got a $10M SB in the NFL plus his 2017 and 2018 base salaries for guaranteed money. Our sim guaranteed money is the $12.5M SB for that LTC here. Seems realistic for what he got in NFL.
He'll make smaller base salaries in the NFL compared to here for two years, but then his salaries go up to 3.3M, 6.2M, 6.45M, 6.7M and 7.95M. Here he'd make 6.2M for all years under the deal. That seems reasonable compared to most of the years under his new NFL deal, but higher than reality on the first seasons with lower NFL salaries.
If we went with a median salary instead of the LTC average, that uses $5M instead of 6.2M. If we took out the highest and lowest from his LTC considered salaries that puts him at 6.06 instead of 6.2. If we looked at top 15 instead of top 10 salaries for the average, it took the LTC down to 5.3M.
I think the LTC generated in this case is somewhat reasonable, especially considering how important lineman are in our game and the prices people will pay for them on the market. Maybe a little high (especially compared to his next two NFL seasons), but also a balances out with a little low compared to his higher paid future NFL season ahead after that.
The easiest LTC adjustment would probably be adding more players to the average (such as top 15 instead of top 10) or using the median. Both of those result in similar figures in this example and about a million less for LTC.
If we did something like that to knock LTC down slightly, I'd also want to check the more elite players and make sure such a change didn't create bargain bins for top talent at lower costs. I believe we added some elite player LTC protections previously (at least 75% of tag value for A-grade players) but want to make sure we don't create other problems lowering LTC generally.
I temporarily adjusted the LTC calculations while we're frozen to consider top 15 instead of top 10 in order to look around to see examples of that impact. If that gives us better results, it'll be an easy fix to make permanent.