2010 RULES: Injury Adjustment

[Goodell]

We currently adjust grades as well as averaged updates for player health. If a player marked doubtful it's 75%, questionable 85%, and probable we used 99%. For example, Player X with grade 6.0 and averaged update (for byes and playoff games) of 20 runs for 60 yards.

If Doubtful:
Grade: 4.5 | Update: 15-45

If Questionable:
Grade: 5.1 | Update: 17-51

If Probable:
Grade: 5.9 | Update: 20-59

Remember that if the player was active (not on bye or sim playoff game while sitting at home in reality) we'd use their real performance update, but this was somewhat apparent as a possible issue with injured players having pretty good updates (undeserved?) in the playoffs.

It seemed to me that grades (with smaller numbers) were being hit a lot harder due to injuries than weekly updates where even a doubtful player still was getting a decent update while his grade took a huge hit, which meant that lineman or defensive players were hurt much more by injuries than skill position players.

When the number of sim chances vary depending upon game conditions, a 15-45 update isn't completely different from a 20-59 update despite a big difference between a 5.9 and 4.5 grade under those same circumstances, making a barely walking doubtful player still pretty productive in the sim with his 75% update.

My proposal to deal with that would be to keep the 75%, 85%, 99% applied toward grades, but multiply that injury downgrade TWICE or more toward averaged updates. For example...

If Doubtful:
Grade: 4.5 | Update: 15-45 * .75 again => 11-34

If Questionable:
Grade: 5.1 | Update: 17-51 * .85 again => 14-43

If Probable:
Grade: 5.9 | Update: 20-59 * .99 again => 20-59

There may be better ways of doing this also, including changing the 75/85/99 injury levels to more like 50% / 75% / 95% or something to bring hurt player grades/updates down further.

If Doubtful (and 50% instead):
Grade: 3.0 | Update: 10-30

If Questionable (and 75% instead):
Grade: 4.5 | Update: 15-45

If Probable (and 95% instead):
Grade: 5.7 | Update: 19-57

We went with 99% instead of 95% last year because probable players most of the time seemed like they were locks to play and be pretty much themselves and 95% took grades down too far for that arguably.

Automatic Injury Updates in Playoffs:
In the playoffs we also currently keep up with real injury status for active players and automatically bumped players up one level at the start of the playoffs and before the bowl game assuming that with extra rest and game importance players more likely to give it a go. That was an attempt to take out some of the subjectivity in deciding if a non-active player would likely play or not in our sim playoff games and just automatically change a player's injury level being bumped up on notch in the playoffs and another if making it to the bowl game with 2 weeks rest.

[Goodell]

Boldin was a primary example in the most recent playoffs. He didn't play in reality but was marked "doubtful" I believe most games. Thus, didn't have the option of a real playoff update since he didn't play but got a discounted "doubtful" averaged update that still ended up being 5 catches for 58 yards or so and a touchdown in some rounds. So sits the sidelines in reality but has a nice sim impact, which doesn't really jive with the attempts to bring in some of that reality here.

I don't think we want to hit the grades any harder because they get significantly lower now, but the averaged updates seem high for doubtful players who probably aren't going to play at all but still getting good updates.

[Jared A]

Also... since QB's drive the offense (for the most part) he really just got his grade?


I think that's the way we need to do it. Just knock people who are doubtful.

[Goodell]

Also... since QB's drive the offense (for the most part) he really just got his grade?

I think that's the way we need to do it. Just knock people who are doubtful.

The QBs are the most important as far as success of the passing game (afterall Randy Moss in Oakland with horrible QBs doesn't make them great QBs, but Randy Moss with Tom Brady is a different story where the QB matters a lot to the success of your passing attack).

But the WR's update does matter as far as contributing toward how long a reception would be since his per catch yardage is also factored (along with the QB yards per completion).

WR maybe isn't the best example here. Running Back updates are very important also, and maybe as much as a QB in terms of the success of your running attack.

If a playoff RB is marked "doubtful" but really in no shape to play in reality, but still gets 75% of his update, if he's a star RB instead of his 20-100 average he'd still get 15-75 and keeping his 5 yards per carry average in tact and really be almost as good as if he was 100% healthy (but just getting 5 less carries by design, but if the game scenarios lead to more rushing attempts he may even get more). So a hobbled, barely walking RB who's doubtful for the game is nearly close to the same quality of player in our sim environment even with that .75 reduction. To me that isn't recognizing his injury as much as it needs to. The hit to the grades are pretty strong, but the hit to the updates are weak leading to seriously hurt players still having strong games in the sim unfortunately if we want to bring in more to that real situation.

[Goodell]

There hasn't been much discussion on this (maybe because of the math), and most are wanting to keep it the way it was but a nearly healthy game update for players who aren't healthy enough to even play -- like a doubtful RB who can't walk getting 75% of his average is still a good game when he would sit in reality -- seems like a problem to me still.

I like to keep things democratic where we can but sensing a lot of apathy on this and maybe just votes to keep it the same because not a big deal for most voters? In which case perhaps not a big deal either to change to reduce an averaged update further in cases of injury?

Let me know if any strong opinions to not further reduce averages for injuries which for the most part really is aimed at hitting the doubtful players harder in cases where they aren't playing in reality (bye and playoffs) to use a real update, and would hit the questionable players a bit too and not be much difference for probable based upon our examples above.

If no strong opinions, I think we have to hit the doubtful/questionable averaged updates further to truly reflect they are hurt and not getting just a slightly lesser update.

[Dustin S.]

wow, i dindt see this change before, but i agree with u, and i know the numbers for the vote favor no change, but i do think it should g to 50/75/90 or whatever, mainly becuase your right when you say doubtful players probably wont play.

[tkienast]

If your set on changing it I could see hitting the doubtful at 50% but leaving questionable and probable as is.

50/85/99

[Jared A]

I would be fine with changing the doubtful... but the others really are unpredictable.


Many players listed as "questionable" end up playing close to 100%. So, I'm against changing the others... but would be ok with a doubtful getting a good knock.

[Goodell]

The second most popular choice was the one I was for also with doing one 75/85/99 for the grades which seems okay for grades but hitting another 75/85/99 for the update.

Averaged update example: 20 runs for 60 yards, 6.0 grade.

If Doubtful:
Before - Grade: 4.5 | Update: 15-45
New - Grade: 4.5 | Update: 15-45 * .75 again => 11-34

If Questionable:
Before - Grade: 5.1 | Update: 17-51
New - Grade: 5.1 | Update: 17-51 * .85 again => 14-43

If Probable:
Before - Grade: 5.9 | Update: 20-59
New - Grade: 5.9 | Update: 20-59 * .99 again => 20-59

Leaving it at 75/85/99 keeps things easier to remember in my mind and not getting too complicated than having a different ratio for grades and a different ratio for updates.

Hitting the averaged update twice essentially turns it into 56/72/98 (.99 x .99 = .98), leaving probable almost exactly as it would be, questionable down a little, and doubtful down a lot.

[dinkatoid]

I think I was most worried about probable players (and the occasional questionable) taking a bigger hit due to some to some teams that mark everyone poorly. I have Indy in DFFL and I know at one point the real Colts marked like 1/3 the team as probable, so I was a bit afraid of how that would result. If the math makes that little of a difference for Probable, then I do not see a problem with it. I just did not want the probable players to take a hit to fix the doubtful ones