Interception Discussion

[Jared A]

I know it's part of the game. I'm fine with the loss.

NY Giants QB1: update 20-for-36 (56%, 0.08 adj) 248-yds (12.4 ypc) 2/2 | SIM: 7-for-11 (64%) 95-yds (13.6 ypc), 1 TD / 2 INT


But, the last 2 attempts of the game by Brady were INT's... because he hadn't thrown them, he was basically forced to. It doesn't seem to matter that he'd only had 11 attempts.

Maybe we should start forcing INT's in the same quarter as they happened in real life. There's a HUGE difference in 4th quarter INT's and INT's in the first half.


Another option would be this... Brady threw 36 times in real life. If attempt #14 was a pick... that's the way the sim goes. Basically... 20% of Brady's attempts in the sim were picks. In real life is was closer to 6%.


Like I said, I don't mind losing. And, I don't mind Brady not getting his 2nd TD (even though my offense had a .11 boost). I'm stating that I believe the INT problem is the biggest problem in the sim right now.

[RyanM]

If we were going to adjust this, I think doing it on a % basis would be better.

[Jared A]

I agree on the % basis being the way to go.

But, I don't think the % should change during the game. There needs to be some randomness. An interception on the first play of a drive is much worse than an interception on the 10th play. Simply because of the field position you give to the other team. So, if a guy throws more the odds are he throws more INT's, if he throws less... he throws fewer INT's.

Just because it's the 4th quarter and a guy hasn't thrown his two picks doesn't mean it should be the first pass of the drive two times in a row.

Troy, I know you're getting torn in a couple different directions on this, but just stating my opinion.

[Onyxgem]

I agree with Jared on this....the INT thing needs to be changed.

[Royce R]

I've mentioned in the past % on int's and TD's both.

It goes the other way if the guy throws 55 passes IRL and only throws 14 in the sim and still gets his 2 TD's it gets annoying for the defense as well.

I think % is the fairest shake on both TD's and INT's.

[RyanM]

Not sure I agree on the TDs. Just because Romo throws 2 in the regular game doesn't mean he will in the sim because of WR & Oline strengths vs DB & Dline strengths. Of course you could also argue if there are huge advantages towards the O that maybe he shouldn't throw a pick just because he did IRL.

[Jared A]

That's kind of why I'm a fan of trying to incorporate yards and QB rating as the driving stats.

[Goodell]

Some of these have been discussed before, and I was planning on putting a little more time toward some of the game simulation improvements more this off-season but just able to get a couple things in but always tweak the simulator a little bit during the season in response to odd results that we'd like to avoid. The intent this off-season was to look at that more than I was able to. Not a lot of time currently to make big changes to it, but there is a small tweak or two in that area we may be able to try to incorporate in the future. I don't want it to ever seem like in response to anything that will hurt/help any team (particularly my own in fairness) so when some tweaks there are made -- which will probably lower liklihood of throwing INT later if the sim game passes are much less than the real passes -- I'll mention it ahead of time before we know any of the data for the games that week. We make some changes at week 4 (switch priority order for waivers, reduce grades of players not on real rosters, start incorporating byes, etc.) so I'd like to get some small changes in there for next week.