Quick question - interceptions

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RyanM
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Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2007 10:33 pm

Quick question - interceptions

Post by RyanM »

Aaron Rodgers threw 2 INTs in his game this week & DeAngelo Hall picked off 4 passes in his game this week. However, in the sim against me Aaron threw only one pick & we were at a neutral point on passing adjustments. He had roughly the same number of attempts in both real life & the sim, so I was just wondering why the sim wouldn't have had him throwing at least the two picks he did in real life?

No big deal either way, but just seemed odd.
Ryan McKnight
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Goodell
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Re: Quick question - interceptions

Post by Goodell »

RyanM wrote:Aaron Rodgers threw 2 INTs in his game this week & DeAngelo Hall picked off 4 passes in his game this week. However, in the sim against me Aaron threw only one pick & we were at a neutral point on passing adjustments. He had roughly the same number of attempts in both real life & the sim, so I was just wondering why the sim wouldn't have had him throwing at least the two picks he did in real life?

No big deal either way, but just seemed odd.
A couple weeks ago there was some discussion with people upset about having all picks always thrown even if the QB had less attempts, and I mentioned I'd try to make some slight adjustments there.

The elements in place to "force" turnovers to match the update were adjusted to first do a check of the sim attempts versus the real attempts. If less sim throws than real throws, it no longer went ahead with the higher odds to forcing of a turnover unless multiple turnovers still needed to be accounted. It would start forcing those turnovers once the throws were no longer less than reality.

If there are still interceptions to be accounted for, on every throw there is some percentage of chance it happens from the first quarter on. If those percentages never come up, it starts to take more drastic measures to make sure it does before the game is over. We just stopped some of those more drastic measures if a QB hadn't thrown as many passes as he did in reality yet.

Off the top of my head I believe a QB can also have a turnover reduced from his update if he has a max grade adjustment (sounds like doesn't apply there but just generally).

It's something we'll have to look at the results and adjust again to fine tune, and was a quick fix that we can put more time toward a different approach in the future perhaps, but that's the way it works currently in reaction to people wanting to not see as many picks if less throws than reality. I might look at slightly increasing the odds per pass toward interceptions earlier throughout the game to avoid some of the forcing issues later in the game.
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Leb
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Re: Quick question - interceptions

Post by Leb »

Same thing happened in DFFL. Eli Manning's pick went from 3 down to 1 in the sim despite having a negative grade rating and going against DeAngelo Hall. But he threw 5 less passes.
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Re: Quick question - interceptions

Post by Goodell »

The defenders don't have anything to do with interceptions as things are. We intentionally don't have Peyton Manning with 0 picks throw several picks because a CB on another team intercepted a bad backup QB. The QBs drive their own interceptions for the most part.

There may be a better way later but currently isn't setup for roughly the same number of passes or 5 less passes, but triggers the forcing of turnovers now only once equal or more passes.

I don't have a lot of time these days for modifications to the sim game, but in that case with 2 difference it should have still triggered a force there and I'll try to look into that more this weekend before the next week. Thanks
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