2012 Game Simulation Updates

Royce R
Posts: 675
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2007 12:03 am
Location: South Dakota

Re: 2012 Game Simulation Updates

Post by Royce R »

Goodell wrote:Here's the top NFL rushers last year by yards:

Code: Select all

Name	Team	G	Rush	Yds	Avg	TD
Maurice Jones-Drew	JAC	16	343	1606	4.7	8
Ray Rice	BAL	16	291	1364	4.7	12
Michael Turner	ATL	16	301	1340	4.5	11
LeSean McCoy	PHI	15	273	1309	4.8	17
Arian Foster	HOU	13	278	1224	4.4	10
Frank Gore	SFO	16	282	1211	4.3	8
Marshawn Lynch	SEA	15	285	1204	4.2	12
Willis McGahee	DEN	15	249	1199	4.8	4
Steven Jackson	STL	15	260	1145	4.4	5
Ryan Mathews	SDG	14	222	1091	4.9	6
Reggie Bush	MIA	15	216	1086	5	6
Cedric Benson	CIN	15	273	1067	3.9	6
Shonn Greene	NYJ	16	253	1054	4.2	6
Chris Johnson	TEN	16	262	1047	4	4
Beanie Wells	ARI	14	245	1047	4.3	10
Matt Forte	CHI	12	203	997	4.9	3
Michael Bush	OAK	16	256	977	3.8	7
Adrian Peterson	MIN	12	208	970	4.7	12
Ben Tate	HOU	15	175	942	5.4	4
Fred Jackson	BUF	10	170	934	5.5	6
AFFL:

Code: Select all

1. 1,450 - Rice, Ray (GB) 243-1,450 yds (6 ave) 8 TD
2. 1,238 - Turner, Michael (PHI) 290-1,238 yds (4.3 ave) 10 TD
3. 1,186 - Mathews, Ryan (SD) 240-1,186 yds (4.9 ave) 9 TD
4. 1,085 - Foster, Arian (GB) 205-1,085 yds (5.3 ave) 11 TD
5. 1,065 - Benson, Cedric (CHI) 280-1,065 yds (3.8 ave) 7 TD
6. 1,064 - Jones-Drew, Maurice (SF) 248-1,064 yds (4.3 ave) 4 TD
7. 1,043 - Bush, Reggie (DAL) 214-1,043 yds (4.9 ave) 7 TD
8. 1,009 - McCoy, LeSean (TB) 237-1,009 yds (4.3 ave) 6 TD
9. 961 - Wells, Beanie (HOU) 204-961 yds (4.7 ave) 8 TD
10. 948 - McGahee, Willis (ATL) 208-948 yds (4.6 ave) 4 TD
11. 924 - Jackson, Steven (CIN) 206-924 yds (4.5 ave) 5 TD
12. 914 - Jackson, Fred (DAL) 147-914 yds (6.2 ave) 9 TD
13. 898 - Williams, DeAngelo (NYJ) 163-898 yds (5.5 ave) 3 TD
14. 878 - Peterson, Adrian (ATL) 176-878 yds (5 ave) 9 TD
15. 859 - Greene, Shonn (HOU) 209-859 yds (4.1 ave) 10 TD
16. 814 - Johnson, Chris (NYG) 224-814 yds (3.6 ave) 2 TD
17. 754 - Mendenhall, Rashard (WAS) 196-754 yds (3.8 ave) 2 TD
18. 731 - Gore, Frank (OAK) 183-731 yds (4 ave) 7 TD
19. 728 - Stewart, Jonathan (SEA) 154-728 yds (4.7 ave) 3 TD
20. 681 - Bush, Michael (CIN) 186-681 yds (3.7 ave) 5 TD

CFFL:

Code: Select all

1. 1,491 - Turner, Michael (NO) 277-1,491 yds (5.4 ave) 16 TD
2. 1,463 - Jones-Drew, Maurice (BAL) 320-1,463 yds (4.6 ave) 5 TD
3. 1,281 - Foster, Arian (TEN) 270-1,281 yds (4.7 ave) 10 TD
4. 1,138 - Rice, Ray (BUF) 235-1,138 yds (4.8 ave) 2 TD
5. 1,089 - Gore, Frank (SF) 259-1,089 yds (4.2 ave) 12 TD
6. 1,071 - McCoy, LeSean (PHI) 245-1,071 yds (4.4 ave) 8 TD
7. 1,065 - Wells, Beanie (NO) 203-1,065 yds (5.2 ave) 4 TD
8. 1,003 - Jackson, Steven (CLE) 232-1,003 yds (4.3 ave) 5 TD
9. 964 - Greene, Shonn (DAL) 239-964 yds (4 ave) 3 TD
10. 936 - Peterson, Adrian (MIN) 211-936 yds (4.4 ave) 10 TD
11. 922 - McGahee, Willis (CIN) 188-922 yds (4.9 ave) 1 TD
12. 890 - Forte, Matt (NYG) 185-890 yds (4.8 ave) 5 TD
13. 870 - Mendenhall, Rashard (DET) 191-870 yds (4.6 ave) 8 TD
14. 861 - Bush, Michael (WAS) 247-861 yds (3.5 ave) 10 TD
15. 803 - Johnson, Chris (NE) 225-803 yds (3.6 ave) 6 TD
16. 746 - Lynch, Marshawn (BUF) 177-746 yds (4.2 ave) 3 TD
17. 746 - Jackson, Fred (KC) 149-746 yds (5 ave) 2 TD
18. 739 - Williams, DeAngelo (ARI) 164-739 yds (4.5 ave) 4 TD
19. 708 - Benson, Cedric (JAC) 197-708 yds (3.6 ave) 5 TD
20. 704 - Blount, LeGarrette (DAL) 169-704 yds (4.2 ave) 4 TD
DFFL:

Code: Select all

1. 1,288 - McCoy, LeSean (ATL) 261-1,288 yds (4.9 ave) 12 TD
2. 1,257 - Lynch, Marshawn (BUF) 268-1,257 yds (4.7 ave) 4 TD
3. 1,213 - Gore, Frank (SF) 256-1,213 yds (4.7 ave) 10 TD
4. 1,107 - Jones-Drew, Maurice (NYG) 223-1,107 yds (5 ave) 3 TD
5. 1,082 - Forte, Matt (KC) 215-1,082 yds (5 ave) 5 TD
6. 1,069 - Foster, Arian (NE) 241-1,069 yds (4.4 ave) 6 TD
7. 1,045 - Turner, Michael (DET) 238-1,045 yds (4.4 ave) 8 TD
8. 1,005 - Jackson, Steven (WAS) 248-1,005 yds (4.1 ave) 6 TD
9. 984 - Rice, Ray (DAL) 202-984 yds (4.9 ave) 7 TD
10. 942 - Jackson, Fred (IND) 177-942 yds (5.3 ave) 5 TD
11. 938 - Johnson, Chris (TEN) 239-938 yds (3.9 ave) 2 TD
12. 927 - Stewart, Jonathan (CAR) 192-927 yds (4.8 ave) 3 TD
13. 830 - Bradshaw, Ahmad (CLE) 189-830 yds (4.4 ave) 9 TD
14. 804 - Greene, Shonn (JAC) 202-804 yds (4 ave) 2 TD
15. 804 - Mathews, Ryan (CIN) 185-804 yds (4.3 ave) 6 TD
16. 801 - Mendenhall, Rashard (BAL) 219-801 yds (3.7 ave) 7 TD
17. 780 - Thomas, Pierre (CLE) 191-780 yds (4.1 ave) 5 TD
18. 769 - Williams, DeAngelo (PHI) 152-769 yds (5.1 ave) 5 TD
19. 767 - Benson, Cedric (SF) 175-767 yds (4.4 ave) 9 TD
20. 750 - Murray, DeMarco (TB) 132-750 yds (5.7 ave) 5 TD
Despite our game simulator probably being more conservative when originally programmed 5-6 years ago than today's wide open NFL with much more passing, it looks like we might even be a little behind on for ground performance also with very few sim rushers approaching the total carries by the NFL's most utilized rushers.

If both passing and rushers are down in sim from reality, probably do need to speed up our sim offenses to get more total plays involved within our sim games (other than situations where a team would be intentionally milking the clock in the 4th quarter way up).


Do we have more blowouts? I mean our gm's have no fear of getting fired so selling out teams tends to happen. Thus I think we have more different between the best teams and the worst than the nfl might?

No facts to prove what I said just thinking outloud.
AFFL - Titans GM since 2007
96 - 62 - 2 regular season
6 playoff appearances
4 division titles
2 conference titles
1 AFFL title
Goodell
Posts: 3780
Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2008 3:44 am

Re: 2012 Game Simulation Updates

Post by Goodell »

Royce R wrote:Do we have more blowouts? I mean our gm's have no fear of getting fired so selling out teams tends to happen. Thus I think we have more different between the best teams and the worst than the nfl might?

No facts to prove what I said just thinking outloud.
Yeah, I believe our teams tend to be more on the extremes (either contending or rebuilding). That tends to lead to bigger blowouts you'd think when those two mix with a really, really good going against the really, really bad.

I don't think that's necessarily bad myself, as I'm in a lot of sim leagues other than here and tend to be the same way either going for it all now or planning ahead. But it probably does lead to situations where we will have some differences from reality no matter what. However, still want to check our stats against reality periodially and see if we should be adjusting to keep up with the big picture of league results overall.
Official Statement from the Commissioner's Office
Royce R
Posts: 675
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2007 12:03 am
Location: South Dakota

Re: 2012 Game Simulation Updates

Post by Royce R »

Ya just saying maybe that results in some more of the "killing the clock" situations. Like I said, no idea just wondering.
AFFL - Titans GM since 2007
96 - 62 - 2 regular season
6 playoff appearances
4 division titles
2 conference titles
1 AFFL title
RebelFan
Posts: 469
Joined: Fri Apr 10, 2009 5:01 pm
Location: MS

Re: 2012 Game Simulation Updates

Post by RebelFan »

On the part about kick/punt returners, it would be nice / realistic if we could select more than one. I feel like we have discussed this before though.

Great thoughts on the blowout theory Royce.
GM - Chicago Bears - AFFL
GM - San Francisco 49ers - DFFL

"Talent Hoarder"
Goodell
Posts: 3780
Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2008 3:44 am

Re: 2012 Game Simulation Updates

Post by Goodell »

RebelFan wrote:On the part about kick/punt returners, it would be nice / realistic if we could select more than one. I feel like we have discussed this before though.

Great thoughts on the blowout theory Royce.

The plan is we'll pull in any others who have game updates with return data. If nobody has any return data on the team, it would default to the guy singled-out, but otherwise it would look for guys on the team with returns in the games that week and utilize more returners than we have in the past.
Official Statement from the Commissioner's Office
Ben C.
Posts: 1037
Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2007 4:27 pm
Location: Chicago, IL

Re: 2012 Game Simulation Updates

Post by Ben C. »

It might be useful to look at the totals instead of the individuals. For example, the NFL had x passing yards across the top 20 passers, but the AFFL had y. If x and y aren't very different, we might not necessarily need to make any tweaks.

Also, long-term it would still be nice to add an element where the team could game plan. Perhaps just give a simple drop down where the team could select from "pass-heavy" "run-heavy" or "balanced." Then the simulator would make some decisions based on the team's selection.
AFFL Arizona - General Manager
Regular Season Record - 174-66-1
Playoff Record - 13-12
AFFL Bowl Record - 0-2

2x NFC Champions - 2010, 2016
11x NFC West Champions - 2007-12, 2014-15, 2017-18, 2021
AFFL History
tino38
Posts: 1132
Joined: Sun Apr 12, 2009 5:39 pm

Re: 2012 Game Simulation Updates

Post by tino38 »

Ben C. wrote:It might be useful to look at the totals instead of the individuals. For example, the NFL had x passing yards across the top 20 passers, but the AFFL had y. If x and y aren't very different, we might not necessarily need to make any tweaks.

Also, long-term it would still be nice to add an element where the team could game plan. Perhaps just give a simple drop down where the team could select from "pass-heavy" "run-heavy" or "balanced." Then the simulator would make some decisions based on the team's selection.
The game plan would add a unique level of skill to this and add a but of preparation rather than some guys just clicking submit depth chart and that's all they are on for, for the week. It would allow for teams to really use what they built their team for whether it be passing or running.
BRFL Saints (31-20) (3-0)
- NFCS Champ: 23’
- NFC Champ: 23’
- SB Champ 23’
AFFL Patriots (97-82) (8-4)
-AFCE Champ: 16', 22’, 23’
-AFC Champ: 22’
-SB Champ: 22’
DFFL Jets - SB Champ 21’ & 22’
FFFL Jets - SB Champ 17’ & 18’
Ulrich82
Posts: 270
Joined: Thu Sep 24, 2009 1:17 am

Re: 2012 Game Simulation Updates

Post by Ulrich82 »

I have some general thoughts on kickers. I am not really sure what the solution is, but if we are going to alter the kicking simulation, maybe some of this should be taken into account.

Research has shown that a kicker's accuracy is incredibly inconsistent from year to year. This really comes from the small sample size of kicking only ~30 field goals a season. Such a small sample size also makes it difficult to try to reproduce NFL statistics in the simulation.
Bill Barnwell at Grantland.com documented this very well in discussing teams franchising kickers earlier this offseason (http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-trian ... f-the-dark). The accompanying chart from the article is very interesting. This data includes every kicker since 1999 who attempted at least 20 field goals in consecutive season. It breaks the kickers down into accuracy groups and then compares that with their accuracy the following season:

From To Kickers Group Avg, Year 2
70.0% 74.9% 30 82.4%
75.0% 79.9% 52 81.8%
80.0% 84.9% 74 82.8%
85.0% 88.9% 59 82.6%
89.0% 99.9% 41 81.1%

You'll notice that the least accurate kickers (the 70-75% group) are more accurate the next season than the most accurate (of course, looking at the data, I suspect again that sample size is playing a role, and we are just seeing that kickers generally are ~82% accurate over the long term since 1999).

I'm not sure how to interpret that in terms of the sim, but it might be worth keeping in mind. FG attempts is one issue, but I am not sure if we should strictly try to follow a kicker's accuracy number during the season or if we should use Madden grades or some probability distribution.

The other problem with kickers is if they actually handle kickoffs. On SF in the CFFL, my kicker only handles field goals in the NFL. Do we want to punish these players in the long term, or treat them like normal kickers and assume they kick off in the sim? Penalizing teams who don't have a kicker who handles kickoffs could be a problem because there are only 32 kickoff guys in the NFL and (unlike the limited number of starting QBs) a few are punters or specialists. Again, I don't know what the right answer is, but it is something to think about.
CFFL SF 49ers since 2010
NFC West Champions: 2011, 2012, 2013 , 2014, 2015
Undefeated 2013-2014 Regular Season

AFFL:
Assistant GM with Car Panthers since 2012
Carolina Panthers GM Since 2014
Post Reply