2012 Game Simulation Updates
2012 Game Simulation Updates
I'd like to update our game simulator at least a little before next season to iron out some of the worst issues that pop up every now and then. I think the focus for this league is mostly on the GM role of team building more than getting too caught-up in game day as much, but we mostly want the game simulator to return good results for good team building and have the results make sense.
If someone has time, it would be interesting to see data comparisons of our sim environment versus reality. I'm thinking with the NFL getting very pass-happy that our game simulator might need to be tweaked a little more to keep up with the huge QB results we are seeing. We'll probably turn back the situational game calling a bit so our sim teams don't get overly into the run game when ahead while the NFL teams keep chucking it in today's NFL. In other cases, might need to ensure a running QB is treated similarly to RBs if the numbers indicate that.
There are some special teams and two-minute management tweaks I want to look at also, and in the past it's been brought up about trying to add more context to the real stats entered (if great rushing numbers also behind a great real line against a poor defense, etc.) that I've done a little work on previously.
If there are some issues in the game simulation you'd like to see addressed, you can list them here and I'll take a look at this thread when I get a chance to work on the game simulator before next fall.
If someone has time, it would be interesting to see data comparisons of our sim environment versus reality. I'm thinking with the NFL getting very pass-happy that our game simulator might need to be tweaked a little more to keep up with the huge QB results we are seeing. We'll probably turn back the situational game calling a bit so our sim teams don't get overly into the run game when ahead while the NFL teams keep chucking it in today's NFL. In other cases, might need to ensure a running QB is treated similarly to RBs if the numbers indicate that.
There are some special teams and two-minute management tweaks I want to look at also, and in the past it's been brought up about trying to add more context to the real stats entered (if great rushing numbers also behind a great real line against a poor defense, etc.) that I've done a little work on previously.
If there are some issues in the game simulation you'd like to see addressed, you can list them here and I'll take a look at this thread when I get a chance to work on the game simulator before next fall.
Official Statement from the Commissioner's Office
Re: 2012 Game Simulation Updates
I'm pretty sure this has been talked about it the past but something like sliders to determine your teams philosophy would be nice. For example, if a GM wanted to be a running team and pound the ball into the ground behind a good line then they should be able to set that as their focus where if there is a team built like the Saints in real life, they would be able to throw it the majority of the time.
GM Tampa Bay Buccaneers - AFFL
Re: 2012 Game Simulation Updates
Following up on this. Every year prior to the sim season starting I try to tweak a couple of things with the aim of keeping up to date with our sim results so they look as realistic as possible. With less than 10 days until we do our first sim, won't be a lot of changes but some of the things discussed over this off-season I'll attempt to integrate. One of the items mentioned above is checking our stats vs. NFL to see if we need to tweak the amount of plays or play calling that happens to ensure the best sim results.
Here's the NFL's top 20 passers by yardage.
Here's AFFL:
CFFL:
DFFL:
We only had 1 5K passer across all the leagues (3 in NFL) and about 30% less 4K passers.
One of the things mentioned above is not leaning so heavily to the conservative setting in the play calling scripts to force run, run, run while ahead in the second half quite as much. We may also look at scaling down the time range between plays if finding not enough offense production in sim within the amount of plays run against the clock.
I'll post some others, but before I dig into the game simulator a bit again prior to our sim season, this is a good place to post things. We won't have major changes, so you can suggest them for posterity, but it'll mostly be small tweaks aimed at improved game stat results comparable to reality.
Here's the NFL's top 20 passers by yardage.
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Name Team G Comp Att Pct Yds TD Int
Drew Brees NOR 16 468 657 71.2 5476 46 14
Tom Brady NWE 16 401 611 65.6 5235 39 12
Matthew Stafford DET 16 421 663 63.5 5038 41 16
Eli Manning NYG 16 359 589 61 4933 29 16
Aaron Rodgers GNB 15 343 502 68.3 4643 45 6
Philip Rivers SDG 16 366 582 62.9 4624 27 20
Tony Romo DAL 16 346 522 66.3 4184 31 10
Matt Ryan ATL 16 347 566 61.3 4177 29 12
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 15 324 513 63.2 4077 21 14
Cam Newton CAR 16 310 517 60 4051 21 17
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 16 353 569 62 3832 24 23
Joe Flacco BAL 16 312 542 57.6 3610 20 12
Josh Freeman TAM 15 346 551 62.8 3592 16 22
Matt Hasselbeck TEN 16 319 518 61.6 3571 18 14
Mark Sanchez NYJ 16 308 543 56.7 3474 26 18
Andy Dalton CIN 16 300 516 58.1 3398 20 13
Michael Vick PHI 13 253 423 59.8 3303 18 14
Rex Grossman WAS 13 265 458 57.9 3151 16 20
Alex Smith SFO 16 273 445 61.3 3144 17 5
Tarvaris Jackson SEA 15 271 450 60.2 3091 14 13
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1. 4,871 - Brees, Drew (SD) 411-for-555 4,871 yds 46/7
2. 4,527 - Brady, Tom (NE) 397-for-632 4,527 yds 32/10
3. 4,518 - Romo, Tony (MIA) 365-for-553 4,518 yds 31/9
4. 4,496 - Ryan, Matt (JAC) 426-for-681 4,496 yds 21/13
5. 4,351 - Stafford, Matthew (DET) 294-for-490 4,351 yds 42/12
6. 4,271 - Sanchez, Mark (KC) 409-for-645 4,271 yds 25/15
7. 4,180 - Rodgers, Aaron (ARI) 353-for-512 4,180 yds 37/2
8. 3,940 - Flacco, Joe (DAL) 337-for-490 3,940 yds 30/10
9. 3,881 - Rivers, Philip (GB) 330-for-474 3,881 yds 28/12
10. 3,836 - Roethlisberger, Ben (PHI) 354-for-516 3,836 yds 22/12
11. 3,809 - Hasselbeck, Matt (CHI) 339-for-516 3,809 yds 20/13
12. 3,777 - Grossman, Rex (SEA) 368-for-672 3,777 yds 19/21
13. 3,337 - Manning, Eli (STL) 284-for-535 3,337 yds 21/11
14. 3,259 - Vick, Michael (IND) 290-for-494 3,259 yds 19/15
15. 3,132 - Smith, Alex (SF) 274-for-473 3,132 yds 16/5
16. 3,096 - Moore, Matt (TB) 286-for-572 3,096 yds 11/19
17. 3,056 - Freeman, Josh (MIN) 307-for-492 3,056 yds 15/18
18. 2,954 - McCoy, Colt (BUF) 293-for-507 2,954 yds 17/9
19. 2,636 - Newton, Cam (CLE) 231-for-449 2,636 yds 14/14
20. 2,581 - Fitzpatrick, Ryan (NO) 239-for-471 2,581 yds 19/19
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1. 4,938 - Rodgers, Aaron (GB) 418-for-606 4,938 yds 39/8
2. 4,262 - Rivers, Philip (WAS) 333-for-484 4,262 yds 25/14
3. 4,234 - Brady, Tom (NE) 334-for-461 4,234 yds 40/5
4. 4,148 - Ryan, Matt (DET) 348-for-466 4,148 yds 36/7
5. 4,118 - Brees, Drew (NO) 366-for-457 4,118 yds 46/10
6. 4,076 - Manning, Eli (PHI) 304-for-502 4,076 yds 31/12
7. 3,987 - Romo, Tony (KC) 361-for-560 3,987 yds 23/7
8. 3,759 - Roethlisberger, Ben (PIT) 327-for-550 3,759 yds 20/14
9. 3,653 - Dalton, Andy (NYJ) 369-for-646 3,653 yds 17/14
10. 3,538 - Flacco, Joe (SF) 268-for-462 3,538 yds 21/8
11. 3,377 - Sanchez, Mark (BAL) 315-for-527 3,377 yds 22/17
12. 3,324 - Stafford, Matthew (OAK) 330-for-538 3,324 yds 19/14
13. 3,309 - Fitzpatrick, Ryan (CIN) 290-for-549 3,309 yds 16/18
14. 3,111 - Freeman, Josh (TEN) 280-for-439 3,111 yds 15/18
15. 3,042 - Vick, Michael (NYG) 265-for-464 3,042 yds 20/13
16. 3,025 - Newton, Cam (JAC) 261-for-467 3,025 yds 15/15
17. 3,022 - Cutler, Jay (SD) 278-for-427 3,022 yds 17/8
18. 2,491 - McCoy, Colt (MIA) 253-for-499 2,491 yds 6/12
19. 2,437 - Schaub, Matt (HOU) 196-for-325 2,437 yds 16/6
20. 2,398 - Hasselbeck, Matt (MIN) 228-for-414 2,398 yds 10/15
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1. 5,051 - Rodgers, Aaron (SD) 408-for-528 5,051 yds 47/5
2. 4,745 - Brees, Drew (CLE) 385-for-522 4,745 yds 51/10
3. 4,728 - Stafford, Matthew (KC) 396-for-525 4,728 yds 46/11
4. 4,135 - Manning, Eli (CHI) 311-for-513 4,135 yds 26/14
5. 4,110 - Newton, Cam (OAK) 373-for-571 4,110 yds 19/15
6. 4,086 - Romo, Tony (GB) 365-for-533 4,086 yds 26/8
7. 4,022 - Ryan, Matt (ATL) 345-for-530 4,022 yds 26/8
8. 3,897 - Sanchez, Mark (DEN) 387-for-595 3,897 yds 22/15
9. 3,716 - Flacco, Joe (BAL) 317-for-546 3,716 yds 24/9
10. 3,694 - Dalton, Andy (NE) 324-for-521 3,694 yds 22/11
11. 3,641 - Brady, Tom (NYG) 315-for-466 3,641 yds 29/6
12. 3,521 - Freeman, Josh (CAR) 370-for-604 3,521 yds 16/21
13. 3,417 - Rivers, Philip (DAL) 281-for-496 3,417 yds 20/20
14. 3,409 - Roethlisberger, Ben (PIT) 315-for-586 3,409 yds 19/19
15. 3,408 - Hasselbeck, Matt (SF) 273-for-394 3,408 yds 29/7
16. 2,895 - Vick, Michael (TB) 250-for-407 2,895 yds 17/10
17. 2,659 - Orton, Kyle (NYJ) 271-for-543 2,659 yds 8/15
18. 2,455 - McCoy, Colt (MIA) 213-for-459 2,455 yds 12/13
19. 2,411 - McNabb, Donovan (TEN) 237-for-492 2,411 yds 7/12
20. 2,343 - Kolb, Kevin (WAS) 209-for-327 2,343 yds 13/8
One of the things mentioned above is not leaning so heavily to the conservative setting in the play calling scripts to force run, run, run while ahead in the second half quite as much. We may also look at scaling down the time range between plays if finding not enough offense production in sim within the amount of plays run against the clock.
I'll post some others, but before I dig into the game simulator a bit again prior to our sim season, this is a good place to post things. We won't have major changes, so you can suggest them for posterity, but it'll mostly be small tweaks aimed at improved game stat results comparable to reality.
Official Statement from the Commissioner's Office
Re: 2012 Game Simulation Updates
Here's the top NFL rushers last year by yards:
AFFL:
CFFL:
DFFL:
Despite our game simulator probably being more conservative when originally programmed 5-6 years ago than today's wide open NFL with much more passing, it looks like we might even be a little behind on for ground performance also with very few sim rushers approaching the total carries by the NFL's most utilized rushers.
If both passing and rushers are down in sim from reality, probably do need to speed up our sim offenses to get more total plays involved within our sim games (other than situations where a team would be intentionally milking the clock in the 4th quarter way up).
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Name Team G Rush Yds Avg TD
Maurice Jones-Drew JAC 16 343 1606 4.7 8
Ray Rice BAL 16 291 1364 4.7 12
Michael Turner ATL 16 301 1340 4.5 11
LeSean McCoy PHI 15 273 1309 4.8 17
Arian Foster HOU 13 278 1224 4.4 10
Frank Gore SFO 16 282 1211 4.3 8
Marshawn Lynch SEA 15 285 1204 4.2 12
Willis McGahee DEN 15 249 1199 4.8 4
Steven Jackson STL 15 260 1145 4.4 5
Ryan Mathews SDG 14 222 1091 4.9 6
Reggie Bush MIA 15 216 1086 5 6
Cedric Benson CIN 15 273 1067 3.9 6
Shonn Greene NYJ 16 253 1054 4.2 6
Chris Johnson TEN 16 262 1047 4 4
Beanie Wells ARI 14 245 1047 4.3 10
Matt Forte CHI 12 203 997 4.9 3
Michael Bush OAK 16 256 977 3.8 7
Adrian Peterson MIN 12 208 970 4.7 12
Ben Tate HOU 15 175 942 5.4 4
Fred Jackson BUF 10 170 934 5.5 6
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1. 1,450 - Rice, Ray (GB) 243-1,450 yds (6 ave) 8 TD
2. 1,238 - Turner, Michael (PHI) 290-1,238 yds (4.3 ave) 10 TD
3. 1,186 - Mathews, Ryan (SD) 240-1,186 yds (4.9 ave) 9 TD
4. 1,085 - Foster, Arian (GB) 205-1,085 yds (5.3 ave) 11 TD
5. 1,065 - Benson, Cedric (CHI) 280-1,065 yds (3.8 ave) 7 TD
6. 1,064 - Jones-Drew, Maurice (SF) 248-1,064 yds (4.3 ave) 4 TD
7. 1,043 - Bush, Reggie (DAL) 214-1,043 yds (4.9 ave) 7 TD
8. 1,009 - McCoy, LeSean (TB) 237-1,009 yds (4.3 ave) 6 TD
9. 961 - Wells, Beanie (HOU) 204-961 yds (4.7 ave) 8 TD
10. 948 - McGahee, Willis (ATL) 208-948 yds (4.6 ave) 4 TD
11. 924 - Jackson, Steven (CIN) 206-924 yds (4.5 ave) 5 TD
12. 914 - Jackson, Fred (DAL) 147-914 yds (6.2 ave) 9 TD
13. 898 - Williams, DeAngelo (NYJ) 163-898 yds (5.5 ave) 3 TD
14. 878 - Peterson, Adrian (ATL) 176-878 yds (5 ave) 9 TD
15. 859 - Greene, Shonn (HOU) 209-859 yds (4.1 ave) 10 TD
16. 814 - Johnson, Chris (NYG) 224-814 yds (3.6 ave) 2 TD
17. 754 - Mendenhall, Rashard (WAS) 196-754 yds (3.8 ave) 2 TD
18. 731 - Gore, Frank (OAK) 183-731 yds (4 ave) 7 TD
19. 728 - Stewart, Jonathan (SEA) 154-728 yds (4.7 ave) 3 TD
20. 681 - Bush, Michael (CIN) 186-681 yds (3.7 ave) 5 TD
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1. 1,491 - Turner, Michael (NO) 277-1,491 yds (5.4 ave) 16 TD
2. 1,463 - Jones-Drew, Maurice (BAL) 320-1,463 yds (4.6 ave) 5 TD
3. 1,281 - Foster, Arian (TEN) 270-1,281 yds (4.7 ave) 10 TD
4. 1,138 - Rice, Ray (BUF) 235-1,138 yds (4.8 ave) 2 TD
5. 1,089 - Gore, Frank (SF) 259-1,089 yds (4.2 ave) 12 TD
6. 1,071 - McCoy, LeSean (PHI) 245-1,071 yds (4.4 ave) 8 TD
7. 1,065 - Wells, Beanie (NO) 203-1,065 yds (5.2 ave) 4 TD
8. 1,003 - Jackson, Steven (CLE) 232-1,003 yds (4.3 ave) 5 TD
9. 964 - Greene, Shonn (DAL) 239-964 yds (4 ave) 3 TD
10. 936 - Peterson, Adrian (MIN) 211-936 yds (4.4 ave) 10 TD
11. 922 - McGahee, Willis (CIN) 188-922 yds (4.9 ave) 1 TD
12. 890 - Forte, Matt (NYG) 185-890 yds (4.8 ave) 5 TD
13. 870 - Mendenhall, Rashard (DET) 191-870 yds (4.6 ave) 8 TD
14. 861 - Bush, Michael (WAS) 247-861 yds (3.5 ave) 10 TD
15. 803 - Johnson, Chris (NE) 225-803 yds (3.6 ave) 6 TD
16. 746 - Lynch, Marshawn (BUF) 177-746 yds (4.2 ave) 3 TD
17. 746 - Jackson, Fred (KC) 149-746 yds (5 ave) 2 TD
18. 739 - Williams, DeAngelo (ARI) 164-739 yds (4.5 ave) 4 TD
19. 708 - Benson, Cedric (JAC) 197-708 yds (3.6 ave) 5 TD
20. 704 - Blount, LeGarrette (DAL) 169-704 yds (4.2 ave) 4 TD
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1. 1,288 - McCoy, LeSean (ATL) 261-1,288 yds (4.9 ave) 12 TD
2. 1,257 - Lynch, Marshawn (BUF) 268-1,257 yds (4.7 ave) 4 TD
3. 1,213 - Gore, Frank (SF) 256-1,213 yds (4.7 ave) 10 TD
4. 1,107 - Jones-Drew, Maurice (NYG) 223-1,107 yds (5 ave) 3 TD
5. 1,082 - Forte, Matt (KC) 215-1,082 yds (5 ave) 5 TD
6. 1,069 - Foster, Arian (NE) 241-1,069 yds (4.4 ave) 6 TD
7. 1,045 - Turner, Michael (DET) 238-1,045 yds (4.4 ave) 8 TD
8. 1,005 - Jackson, Steven (WAS) 248-1,005 yds (4.1 ave) 6 TD
9. 984 - Rice, Ray (DAL) 202-984 yds (4.9 ave) 7 TD
10. 942 - Jackson, Fred (IND) 177-942 yds (5.3 ave) 5 TD
11. 938 - Johnson, Chris (TEN) 239-938 yds (3.9 ave) 2 TD
12. 927 - Stewart, Jonathan (CAR) 192-927 yds (4.8 ave) 3 TD
13. 830 - Bradshaw, Ahmad (CLE) 189-830 yds (4.4 ave) 9 TD
14. 804 - Greene, Shonn (JAC) 202-804 yds (4 ave) 2 TD
15. 804 - Mathews, Ryan (CIN) 185-804 yds (4.3 ave) 6 TD
16. 801 - Mendenhall, Rashard (BAL) 219-801 yds (3.7 ave) 7 TD
17. 780 - Thomas, Pierre (CLE) 191-780 yds (4.1 ave) 5 TD
18. 769 - Williams, DeAngelo (PHI) 152-769 yds (5.1 ave) 5 TD
19. 767 - Benson, Cedric (SF) 175-767 yds (4.4 ave) 9 TD
20. 750 - Murray, DeMarco (TB) 132-750 yds (5.7 ave) 5 TD
If both passing and rushers are down in sim from reality, probably do need to speed up our sim offenses to get more total plays involved within our sim games (other than situations where a team would be intentionally milking the clock in the 4th quarter way up).
Official Statement from the Commissioner's Office
Re: 2012 Game Simulation Updates
QB Rushing Yards in NFL:
AFFL:
CFFL:
DFFL:
With more running QBs these days, I think our sim results might need to factor QB attempts more than it currently does as well.
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Name Team G Rush Yds Avg TD
Cam Newton CAR 16 126 706 5.6 14
Tim Tebow DEN 14 122 660 5.4 6
Michael Vick PHI 13 76 589 7.8 1
Aaron Rodgers GNB 15 60 257 4.3 3
Josh Freeman TAM 15 55 238 4.3 4
Christian Ponder MIN 11 28 219 7.8 0
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 16 56 215 3.8 0
Colt McCoy CLE 13 61 212 3.5 0
Alex Smith SFO 16 52 179 3.4 2
Joe Webb MIN 11 22 154 7 2
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1. 458 - Newton, Cam (CLE) 74-458 yds (6.2 ave) 4 TD
2. 369 - Vick, Michael (IND) 49-369 yds (7.5 ave) 3 TD
3. 239 - Rodgers, Aaron (ARI) 55-239 yds (4.3 ave) 1 TD
4. 202 - Freeman, Josh (MIN) 49-202 yds (4.1 ave) 2 TD
5. 183 - Fitzpatrick, Ryan (NO) 39-183 yds (4.7 ave) 1 TD
6. 150 - Smith, Alex (SF) 46-150 yds (3.3 ave) 1 TD
7. 146 - Ponder, Christian (WAS) 15-146 yds (9.7 ave) 0 TD
8. 124 - Dalton, Andy (OAK) 28-124 yds (4.4 ave) 0 TD
9. 121 - Henne, Chad (SEA) 19-121 yds (6.4 ave) 7 TD
10. 107 - Hanie, Caleb (CIN) 16-107 yds (6.7 ave) 1 TD
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1. 431 - Newton, Cam (JAC) 72-431 yds (6 ave) 5 TD
2. 429 - Vick, Michael (NYG) 56-429 yds (7.7 ave) 1 TD
3. 253 - Rodgers, Aaron (GB) 61-253 yds (4.1 ave) 3 TD
4. 219 - Freeman, Josh (TEN) 53-219 yds (4.1 ave) 5 TD
5. 184 - Fitzpatrick, Ryan (CIN) 45-184 yds (4.1 ave) 0 TD
6. 157 - McCoy, Colt (MIA) 38-157 yds (4.1 ave) 0 TD
7. 142 - Sanchez, Mark (BAL) 37-142 yds (3.8 ave) 1 TD
8. 133 - Smith, Alex (CLE) 39-133 yds (3.4 ave) 0 TD
9. 130 - Painter, Curtis (DAL) 24-130 yds (5.4 ave) 1 TD
10. 130 - Ryan, Matt (DET) 43-130 yds (3 ave) 1 TD
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1. 539 - Vick, Michael (TB) 73-539 yds (7.4 ave) 3 TD
2. 295 - Newton, Cam (OAK) 66-295 yds (4.5 ave) 6 TD
3. 199 - Freeman, Josh (CAR) 41-199 yds (4.9 ave) 4 TD
4. 164 - Dalton, Andy (NE) 39-164 yds (4.2 ave) 2 TD
5. 138 - Rodgers, Aaron (SD) 34-138 yds (4.1 ave) 1 TD
6. 136 - McCoy, Colt (MIA) 33-136 yds (4.1 ave) 1 TD
7. 117 - Sanchez, Mark (DEN) 35-117 yds (3.3 ave) 2 TD
8. 104 - Ryan, Matt (ATL) 43-104 yds (2.4 ave) 1 TD
9. 97 - McNabb, Donovan (TEN) 22-97 yds (4.4 ave) 1 TD
10. 84 - Hasselbeck, Matt (SF) 29-84 yds (2.9 ave) 0 TD
Official Statement from the Commissioner's Office
Re: 2012 Game Simulation Updates
Receivers we're not too far off, as we have had less targets on depth chart than QBs hit in reality, so despite QB numbers being down overall receivers were closer. We'll attempt to bring in more targets for receptions/rushes beyond the depth chart this year as mentioned. Our receivers actually were catching more than reality because of the limited number of sim targets for a sim QB.
NFL:
AFFL:
CFFL:
DFFL:
NFL:
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Name Team G Rec Yds Avg TD Fum FumL
Calvin Johnson DET 16 96 1681 17.5 16 1 1
Wes Welker NWE 16 122 1569 12.9 9 0 0
Victor Cruz NYG 16 82 1536 18.7 9 1 1
Larry Fitzgerald ARI 16 80 1411 17.6 8 0 0
Steve Smith CAR 16 79 1394 17.6 7 3 2
Rob Gronkowski NWE 16 90 1327 14.7 17
Jimmy Graham NOR 16 99 1310 13.2 11
Roddy White ATL 16 100 1296 13 8 0 0
Jordy Nelson GNB 16 68 1263 18.6 15 0 0
Brandon Marshall MIA 16 81 1214 15 6 1 1
Mike Wallace PIT 16 72 1193 16.6 8 1 1
Hakeem Nicks NYG 15 76 1192 15.7 7 0 0
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1. 1,565 - Nicks, Hakeem (JAC) 124-1,565 yds (12.6 ave) 9 TD
2. 1,527 - Johnson, Calvin (HOU) 95-1,527 yds (16.1 ave) 17 TD
3. 1,471 - Welker, Wes (MIA) 118-1,471 yds (12.5 ave) 11 TD
4. 1,350 - Jackson, Vincent (STL) 97-1,350 yds (13.9 ave) 9 TD
5. 1,345 - Bowe, Dwayne (MIN) 111-1,345 yds (12.1 ave) 6 TD
6. 1,301 - Smith, Steve (SEA) 101-1,301 yds (12.9 ave) 7 TD
7. 1,298 - Marshall, Brandon (KC) 117-1,298 yds (11.1 ave) 6 TD
8. 1,277 - White, Roddy (DEN) 103-1,277 yds (12.4 ave) 6 TD
9. 1,251 - Cruz, Victor (DET) 69-1,251 yds (18.1 ave) 9 TD
10. 1,214 - Wallace, Mike (CHI) 97-1,214 yds (12.5 ave) 6 TD
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1. 1,736 - Johnson, Calvin (WAS) 118-1,736 yds (14.7 ave) 14 TD
2. 1,474 - Harvin, Percy (GB) 126-1,474 yds (11.7 ave) 8 TD
3. 1,355 - White, Roddy (DEN) 115-1,355 yds (11.8 ave) 6 TD
4. 1,339 - Welker, Wes (STL) 133-1,339 yds (10.1 ave) 4 TD
5. 1,307 - Marshall, Brandon (SD) 113-1,307 yds (11.6 ave) 8 TD
6. 1,215 - Garcon, Pierre (GB) 93-1,215 yds (13.1 ave) 6 TD
7. 1,155 - Smith, Steve (PHI) 72-1,155 yds (16 ave) 9 TD
8. 1,115 - Davis, Vernon (NE) 79-1,115 yds (14.1 ave) 19 TD
9. 1,080 - Fitzgerald, Larry (DET) 72-1,080 yds (15 ave) 9 TD
10. 1,059 - Gronkowski, Rob (SF) 73-1,059 yds (14.5 ave) 12 TD
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1. 1,864 - Welker, Wes (OAK) 151-1,864 yds (12.3 ave) 12 TD
2. 1,777 - Johnson, Calvin (SD) 131-1,777 yds (13.6 ave) 15 TD
3. 1,398 - Marshall, Brandon (DEN) 128-1,398 yds (10.9 ave) 8 TD
4. 1,390 - Smith, Steve (CAR) 114-1,390 yds (12.2 ave) 9 TD
5. 1,386 - White, Roddy (ATL) 117-1,386 yds (11.8 ave) 11 TD
6. 1,377 - Fitzgerald, Larry (KC) 98-1,377 yds (14.1 ave) 10 TD
7. 1,336 - Nelson, Jordy (CLE) 93-1,336 yds (14.4 ave) 18 TD
8. 1,228 - Green, A.J. (STL) 100-1,228 yds (12.3 ave) 2 TD
9. 1,182 - Gronkowski, Rob (CHI) 76-1,182 yds (15.6 ave) 15 TD
10. 1,177 - Johnson, Stevie (BUF) 118-1,177 yds (10 ave) 1 TD
Official Statement from the Commissioner's Office
Re: 2012 Game Simulation Updates
Tight Ends have tended to get more than their share of TD passes their way. Whether a pass is going to be a TD or not is entirely driven by the QB's game update within the red zone, but when none of his receivers have a TD in their game update it picks one of them to get that QBs driven TD.
NFL
AFFL:
CFFL:
DFFL:
Probably need more digging to root out that TE-heavy leaning on passes by the QB when it's looking for someone to give the reception to. Without a WR/TE having a TD in their update, whether they catch that in the endzone or not is all about trying to get the QB his numbers and less about the receiver there but would still like to see that go more WR than it has been, although guys like Gronkowski and Graham rack up the TDs in their updates and deservedly will get a lot of those and more and more TEs are amongst the best receiving options which tilts things in their favor when a TD pass up for grabs. The bringing in of additional receiver update beyond the depth chart may help more evenly distribute those also if more guys are coming into the sim with real reception TDs in their updates to rightfully grab theirs.
NFL
Code: Select all
Name Team G Rec Yds TD
Rob Gronkowski NWE 16 90 1327 17
Calvin Johnson DET 16 96 1681 16
Jordy Nelson GNB 16 68 1263 15
Jimmy Graham NOR 16 99 1310 11
Laurent Robinson DAL 14 54 858 11
Wes Welker NWE 16 122 1569 9
Vincent Jackson SDG 16 60 1106 9
Victor Cruz NYG 16 82 1536 9
Dez Bryant DAL 15 63 928 9
Greg Jennings GNB 13 67 949 9
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1. 17 - Johnson, Calvin (HOU) 95-1,527 yds (16.1 ave) 17 TD
2. 17 - Davis, Vernon (GB) 85-1,012 yds (11.9 ave) 17 TD
3. 16 - Cook, Jared (SD) 62-809 yds (13 ave) 16 TD
4. 14 - Olsen, Greg (NE) 59-779 yds (13.2 ave) 14 TD
5. 13 - Gronkowski, Rob (DEN) 76-1,075 yds (14.1 ave) 13 TD
6. 12 - Celek, Brent (DET) 45-660 yds (14.7 ave) 12 TD
7. 11 - Pettigrew, Brandon (CLE) 77-865 yds (11.2 ave) 11 TD
8. 11 - Fitzgerald, Larry (DAL) 79-1,098 yds (13.9 ave) 11 TD
9. 11 - Gresham, Jermaine (NO) 54-580 yds (10.7 ave) 11 TD
10. 11 - Rudolph, Kyle (ARI) 30-313 yds (10.4 ave) 11 TD
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1. 19 - Davis, Vernon (NE) 79-1,115 yds (14.1 ave) 19 TD
2. 15 - Miller, Zach (GB) 38-436 yds (11.5 ave) 15 TD
3. 14 - Johnson, Calvin (WAS) 118-1,736 yds (14.7 ave) 14 TD
4. 13 - Celek, Brent (PHI) 50-692 yds (13.8 ave) 13 TD
5. 12 - Gronkowski, Rob (SF) 73-1,059 yds (14.5 ave) 12 TD
6. 12 - Meachem, Robert (NO) 61-749 yds (12.3 ave) 12 TD
7. 11 - Nelson, Jordy (MIN) 76-929 yds (12.2 ave) 11 TD
8. 9 - Smith, Steve (PHI) 72-1,155 yds (16 ave) 9 TD
9. 9 - Fitzgerald, Larry (DET) 72-1,080 yds (15 ave) 9 TD
10. 9 - Dickson, Ed (WAS) 39-420 yds (10.8 ave) 9 TD
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1. 20 - Witten, Jason (KC) 78-1,019 yds (13.1 ave) 20 TD
2. 18 - Nelson, Jordy (CLE) 93-1,336 yds (14.4 ave) 18 TD
3. 15 - Gates, Antonio (SD) 62-782 yds (12.6 ave) 15 TD
4. 15 - Johnson, Calvin (SD) 131-1,777 yds (13.6 ave) 15 TD
5. 15 - Gronkowski, Rob (CHI) 76-1,182 yds (15.6 ave) 15 TD
6. 13 - Shockey, Jeremy (NYG) 47-547 yds (11.6 ave) 13 TD
7. 12 - Welker, Wes (OAK) 151-1,864 yds (12.3 ave) 12 TD
8. 11 - White, Roddy (ATL) 117-1,386 yds (11.8 ave) 11 TD
9. 10 - Gonzalez, Tony (GB) 88-1,030 yds (11.7 ave) 10 TD
10. 10 - Winslow, Kellen (DEN) 72-807 yds (11.2 ave) 10 TD
Official Statement from the Commissioner's Office
Re: 2012 Game Simulation Updates
Here are the NFL's kick and punt return averages for top individuals last year:
The new NFL rules with kickoffs went into effect last year and we wanted to examine the impacts before changing too much. I think after a year observing we probably need to have more default touchbacks on kickoffs outside of making sure we incorporate strong game update returns when they happen. There was some other talk last year about incorporating number of kicker touchbacks, etc. and some of that may incorporate complications (such as just about anyone kicking in Denver will almost always have touchbacks but what if Denver kicker at sim sea level, kickers in high scoring games will have more chances for touchbacks than in low scoring real games, etc.) and adjustment to game data input processes, so might be easiest to lean much more toward touchback as a default on kickoffs outside of allowing a great return update to have a chance or two at incorporating that playmaking game update for returners.
We'll keep the one kick/punt returner in the depth chart, but will attempt to bring in other returners if they have game updates -- particularly for big kick returns and especially as punt returners where you see many more real punt returns.
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Kick Returner Team G KR Yds Avg Long TD PR Yds Avg Long TD
Joe McKnight NYJ 15 34 1073 31.6 107 1 5 26 5.2 12 0
Randall Cobb GNB 15 34 941 27.7 108 1 26 295 11.3 80 1
Ted Ginn Jr. SFO 14 29 800 27.6 102 1 38 466 12.3 55 1
Richard Goodman SDG 16 34 936 27.5 105 1 0 0 N/A 0 0
Antonio Brown PIT 16 27 737 27.3 52 0 30 325 10.8 60 1
Darren Sproles NOR 16 40 1089 27.2 92 0 29 294 10.1 72 1
Sammie Stroughter TAM 6 20 540 27.0 78 0 0 0 N/A 0 0
Kealoha Pilares CAR 12 23 590 25.7 101 1 0 0 N/A 0 0
Jerious Norwood STL 9 24 611 25.5 47 0 0 0 N/A 0 0
Stefan Logan DET 16 33 832 25.2 42 0 37 301 8.1 28 0
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Punt Returner Team G KR Yds Avg Long TD PR Yds Avg Long TD
Devin Hester CHI 16 33 723 21.9 98 1 28 454 16.2 82 2
Patrick Peterson ARI 16 0 0 N/A 0 0 44 699 15.9 99 4
Javier Arenas KAN 15 17 362 21.3 35 0 32 410 12.8 37 0
Ted Ginn Jr. SFO 14 29 800 27.6 102 1 38 466 12.3 55 1
Davone Bess MIA 16 1 0 0.0 0 0 37 442 11.9 25 0
Joshua Cribbs CLE 16 39 974 25.0 63 0 34 388 11.4 84 1
Randall Cobb GNB 15 34 941 27.7 108 1 26 295 11.3 80 1
Leon Washington SEA 16 43 1084 25.2 54 0 41 464 11.3 37 0
Jeremy Kerley NYJ 14 1 15 15.0 15 0 29 317 10.9 53 0
Antonio Brown PIT 16 27 737 27.3 52 0 30 325 10.8 60 1
We'll keep the one kick/punt returner in the depth chart, but will attempt to bring in other returners if they have game updates -- particularly for big kick returns and especially as punt returners where you see many more real punt returns.
Official Statement from the Commissioner's Office
Re: 2012 Game Simulation Updates
NFL punt averages:
AFFL:
CFFL:
DFFL:
Some of these might be situational differences. For example, if a punter is on a bad team in reality and has a long field ahead of him in reality with high punt averages, but the same punter is on a great sim team that usually drives that ball to a shorter field, that could impact some differences because of situations.
However, we may not be punting as far on average and need to look at that as well as within the 20s, etc.
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Name Team G Punt Yds Avg Long In20 Blk
Andy Lee SFO 16 78 3970 50.9 68 28 1
Shane Lechler OAK 16 78 3960 50.8 80 27 0
Brandon Fields MIA 16 78 3810 48.8 70 32 0
Thomas Morstead NOR 16 46 2224 48.3 64 13 1
Brian Moorman BUF 16 72 3472 48.2 66 20 1
Mike Scifres SDG 16 47 2234 47.5 71 17 0
Britton Colquitt DEN 16 101 4783 47.4 66 33 0
Pat McAfee IND 16 88 4102 46.6 64 21 1
Jon Ryan SEA 16 95 4431 46.6 77 34 0
Zoltan Mesko NWE 16 57 2648 46.5 65 24 0
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0. Lechler, Shane (TEN) 4832/104 - 46.5 ave
1. Zastudil, Dave (NYJ) 451/10 - 45.1 ave
2. Moorman, Brian (BUF) 4828/107 - 45.1 ave
3. Morstead, Thomas (PHI) 4767/107 - 44.6 ave
4. Podlesh, Adam (JAC) 3828/86 - 44.5 ave
5. McAfee, Pat (SEA) 4722/106 - 44.5 ave
6. Fields, Brandon (DEN) 3250/73 - 44.5 ave
7. Kluwe, Chris (MIN) 5132/116 - 44.2 ave
8. Lee, Andy (SF) 2911/66 - 44.1 ave
9. Colquitt, Dustin (KC) 2246/51 - 44 ave
10. Masthay, Tim (MIA) 4391/100 - 43.9 ave
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0. Lechler, Shane (ARI) 5350/111 - 48.2 ave
1. Lee, Andy (SF) 3193/68 - 47 ave
2. Fields, Brandon (MIA) 4334/93 - 46.6 ave
3. McAfee, Pat (IND) 5538/120 - 46.2 ave
4. Colquitt, Britton (DEN) 4969/109 - 45.6 ave
5. Morstead, Thomas (MIN) 3962/87 - 45.5 ave
6. Masthay, Tim (PIT) 3757/83 - 45.3 ave
7. Moorman, Brian (BUF) 4362/97 - 45 ave
8. Ryan, Jon (JAC) 3922/88 - 44.6 ave
9. Mesko, Zoltan (TEN) 3449/78 - 44.2 ave
10. Colquitt, Dustin (WAS) 2525/58 - 43.5 ave
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0. Lechler, Shane (TEN) 4832/104 - 46.5 ave
1. Zastudil, Dave (NYJ) 451/10 - 45.1 ave
2. Moorman, Brian (BUF) 4828/107 - 45.1 ave
3. Morstead, Thomas (PHI) 4767/107 - 44.6 ave
4. Podlesh, Adam (JAC) 3828/86 - 44.5 ave
5. McAfee, Pat (SEA) 4722/106 - 44.5 ave
6. Fields, Brandon (DEN) 3250/73 - 44.5 ave
7. Kluwe, Chris (MIN) 5132/116 - 44.2 ave
8. Lee, Andy (SF) 2911/66 - 44.1 ave
9. Colquitt, Dustin (KC) 2246/51 - 44 ave
10. Masthay, Tim (MIA) 4391/100 - 43.9 ave
However, we may not be punting as far on average and need to look at that as well as within the 20s, etc.
Official Statement from the Commissioner's Office
Re: 2012 Game Simulation Updates
For kickers, I'm going to try to take a close look at the FG routines and tighten up where needed. I think some sense that quality kicker not terribly impactful in the sim in the past. A lot of the good/bad calculation utilized percentages and random numbers within certain ranges being good/bad which with a small sample of kicks might not have the desired outcome always.
If the stats are right, probably don't take enough long FG attempts and make too many generally. Some of the extreme nature of the competitive balance in most leagues might also mess with kicker differences from reality to simulation where we tend to have more teams on both extremes where really bad teams will get much less scoring opportunities than real teams perhaps, while our really great sim teams might stick it in the endzone a whole lot more and leave much less FG opportunities. But I'll look at if FGs not being attempted enough and if some tweaks to have our percentages more closely align. Although this is always a little tricky where a kicker might miss a 30 yarder and make a 50 yarder in reality where he gets one sim attempt at 40 yards. Or what if the real kicker misses 2 over 50 but makes a 30 yarder, and in the sim gets a couple chances at short FGs where it wouldn't necessarily penalize him at short distances for the long misses in reality. We've previously attempted to account for misses within real games and incorporate those, but if if a kicker's attempts don't quite match up in the sim doesn't always work out that way. In general, we probably have fewer attempts at closer distances and are much more automatic than reality where probably need more long attempts and more misses overall.
NFL:
If the stats are right, probably don't take enough long FG attempts and make too many generally. Some of the extreme nature of the competitive balance in most leagues might also mess with kicker differences from reality to simulation where we tend to have more teams on both extremes where really bad teams will get much less scoring opportunities than real teams perhaps, while our really great sim teams might stick it in the endzone a whole lot more and leave much less FG opportunities. But I'll look at if FGs not being attempted enough and if some tweaks to have our percentages more closely align. Although this is always a little tricky where a kicker might miss a 30 yarder and make a 50 yarder in reality where he gets one sim attempt at 40 yards. Or what if the real kicker misses 2 over 50 but makes a 30 yarder, and in the sim gets a couple chances at short FGs where it wouldn't necessarily penalize him at short distances for the long misses in reality. We've previously attempted to account for misses within real games and incorporate those, but if if a kicker's attempts don't quite match up in the sim doesn't always work out that way. In general, we probably have fewer attempts at closer distances and are much more automatic than reality where probably need more long attempts and more misses overall.
NFL:
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Name Team G 0-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50+ FGM FGA Pct Lng XPM XPA Pct
Matt Bryant ATL 16 2-2 9-9 9-9 5-7 2-2 27 29 93.1 51 45 45 100.0
Connor Barth TAM 16 0-0 5-5 6-6 13-14 2-3 26 28 92.9 55 23 23 100.0
Josh Scobee JAC 16 1-1 5-5 5-5 7-8 5-6 23 25 92.0 55 24 24 100.0
Rob Bironas TEN 16 0-0 5-5 9-10 9-10 6-7 29 32 90.6 53 34 34 100.0
Alex Henery PHI 16 0-0 10-10 9-11 4-4 1-2 24 27 88.9 51 46 46 100.0
Sebastian Janikowski OAK 15 1-1 8-8 5-5 10-11 7-10 31 35 88.6 63 36 36 100.0
Robbie Gould CHI 16 0-0 10-10 6-6 6-10 6-6 28 32 87.5 57 37 37 100.0
Mike Nugent CIN 16 0-0 14-14 5-8 14-16 0-0 33 38 86.8 49 33 34 97.1
Dan Bailey DAL 16 1-1 8-9 11-11 10-12 2-4 32 37 86.5 51 39 39 100.0
Mason Crosby GNB 16 1-1 4-5 14-14 3-5 2-3 24 28 85.7 58 68 69 98.6
Official Statement from the Commissioner's Office