2012 Game Simulation Updates

Goodell
Posts: 3780
Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2008 3:44 am

2012 Game Simulation Updates

Post by Goodell »

I'd like to update our game simulator at least a little before next season to iron out some of the worst issues that pop up every now and then. I think the focus for this league is mostly on the GM role of team building more than getting too caught-up in game day as much, but we mostly want the game simulator to return good results for good team building and have the results make sense.

If someone has time, it would be interesting to see data comparisons of our sim environment versus reality. I'm thinking with the NFL getting very pass-happy that our game simulator might need to be tweaked a little more to keep up with the huge QB results we are seeing. We'll probably turn back the situational game calling a bit so our sim teams don't get overly into the run game when ahead while the NFL teams keep chucking it in today's NFL. In other cases, might need to ensure a running QB is treated similarly to RBs if the numbers indicate that.

There are some special teams and two-minute management tweaks I want to look at also, and in the past it's been brought up about trying to add more context to the real stats entered (if great rushing numbers also behind a great real line against a poor defense, etc.) that I've done a little work on previously.

If there are some issues in the game simulation you'd like to see addressed, you can list them here and I'll take a look at this thread when I get a chance to work on the game simulator before next fall.
Official Statement from the Commissioner's Office
Nathan S.
Posts: 485
Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2007 8:29 pm

Re: 2012 Game Simulation Updates

Post by Nathan S. »

I'm pretty sure this has been talked about it the past but something like sliders to determine your teams philosophy would be nice. For example, if a GM wanted to be a running team and pound the ball into the ground behind a good line then they should be able to set that as their focus where if there is a team built like the Saints in real life, they would be able to throw it the majority of the time.
GM Tampa Bay Buccaneers - AFFL
Goodell
Posts: 3780
Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2008 3:44 am

Re: 2012 Game Simulation Updates

Post by Goodell »

Following up on this. Every year prior to the sim season starting I try to tweak a couple of things with the aim of keeping up to date with our sim results so they look as realistic as possible. With less than 10 days until we do our first sim, won't be a lot of changes but some of the things discussed over this off-season I'll attempt to integrate. One of the items mentioned above is checking our stats vs. NFL to see if we need to tweak the amount of plays or play calling that happens to ensure the best sim results.

Here's the NFL's top 20 passers by yardage.

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Name	Team	G	Comp	Att	Pct	Yds	TD	Int
Drew Brees	NOR	16	468	657	71.2	5476	46	14
Tom Brady	NWE	16	401	611	65.6	5235	39	12
Matthew Stafford	DET	16	421	663	63.5	5038	41	16
Eli Manning	NYG	16	359	589	61	4933	29	16
Aaron Rodgers	GNB	15	343	502	68.3	4643	45	6
Philip Rivers	SDG	16	366	582	62.9	4624	27	20
Tony Romo	DAL	16	346	522	66.3	4184	31	10
Matt Ryan	ATL	16	347	566	61.3	4177	29	12
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	15	324	513	63.2	4077	21	14
Cam Newton	CAR	16	310	517	60	4051	21	17
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	16	353	569	62	3832	24	23
Joe Flacco	BAL	16	312	542	57.6	3610	20	12
Josh Freeman	TAM	15	346	551	62.8	3592	16	22
Matt Hasselbeck	TEN	16	319	518	61.6	3571	18	14
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	16	308	543	56.7	3474	26	18
Andy Dalton	CIN	16	300	516	58.1	3398	20	13
Michael Vick	PHI	13	253	423	59.8	3303	18	14
Rex Grossman	WAS	13	265	458	57.9	3151	16	20
Alex Smith	SFO	16	273	445	61.3	3144	17	5
Tarvaris Jackson	SEA	15	271	450	60.2	3091	14	13
Here's AFFL:

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1. 4,871 - Brees, Drew (SD) 411-for-555 4,871 yds 46/7
2. 4,527 - Brady, Tom (NE) 397-for-632 4,527 yds 32/10
3. 4,518 - Romo, Tony (MIA) 365-for-553 4,518 yds 31/9
4. 4,496 - Ryan, Matt (JAC) 426-for-681 4,496 yds 21/13
5. 4,351 - Stafford, Matthew (DET) 294-for-490 4,351 yds 42/12
6. 4,271 - Sanchez, Mark (KC) 409-for-645 4,271 yds 25/15
7. 4,180 - Rodgers, Aaron (ARI) 353-for-512 4,180 yds 37/2
8. 3,940 - Flacco, Joe (DAL) 337-for-490 3,940 yds 30/10
9. 3,881 - Rivers, Philip (GB) 330-for-474 3,881 yds 28/12
10. 3,836 - Roethlisberger, Ben (PHI) 354-for-516 3,836 yds 22/12
11. 3,809 - Hasselbeck, Matt (CHI) 339-for-516 3,809 yds 20/13
12. 3,777 - Grossman, Rex (SEA) 368-for-672 3,777 yds 19/21
13. 3,337 - Manning, Eli (STL) 284-for-535 3,337 yds 21/11
14. 3,259 - Vick, Michael (IND) 290-for-494 3,259 yds 19/15
15. 3,132 - Smith, Alex (SF) 274-for-473 3,132 yds 16/5
16. 3,096 - Moore, Matt (TB) 286-for-572 3,096 yds 11/19
17. 3,056 - Freeman, Josh (MIN) 307-for-492 3,056 yds 15/18
18. 2,954 - McCoy, Colt (BUF) 293-for-507 2,954 yds 17/9
19. 2,636 - Newton, Cam (CLE) 231-for-449 2,636 yds 14/14
20. 2,581 - Fitzpatrick, Ryan (NO) 239-for-471 2,581 yds 19/19
CFFL:

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1. 4,938 - Rodgers, Aaron (GB) 418-for-606 4,938 yds 39/8
2. 4,262 - Rivers, Philip (WAS) 333-for-484 4,262 yds 25/14
3. 4,234 - Brady, Tom (NE) 334-for-461 4,234 yds 40/5
4. 4,148 - Ryan, Matt (DET) 348-for-466 4,148 yds 36/7
5. 4,118 - Brees, Drew (NO) 366-for-457 4,118 yds 46/10
6. 4,076 - Manning, Eli (PHI) 304-for-502 4,076 yds 31/12
7. 3,987 - Romo, Tony (KC) 361-for-560 3,987 yds 23/7
8. 3,759 - Roethlisberger, Ben (PIT) 327-for-550 3,759 yds 20/14
9. 3,653 - Dalton, Andy (NYJ) 369-for-646 3,653 yds 17/14
10. 3,538 - Flacco, Joe (SF) 268-for-462 3,538 yds 21/8
11. 3,377 - Sanchez, Mark (BAL) 315-for-527 3,377 yds 22/17
12. 3,324 - Stafford, Matthew (OAK) 330-for-538 3,324 yds 19/14
13. 3,309 - Fitzpatrick, Ryan (CIN) 290-for-549 3,309 yds 16/18
14. 3,111 - Freeman, Josh (TEN) 280-for-439 3,111 yds 15/18
15. 3,042 - Vick, Michael (NYG) 265-for-464 3,042 yds 20/13
16. 3,025 - Newton, Cam (JAC) 261-for-467 3,025 yds 15/15
17. 3,022 - Cutler, Jay (SD) 278-for-427 3,022 yds 17/8
18. 2,491 - McCoy, Colt (MIA) 253-for-499 2,491 yds 6/12
19. 2,437 - Schaub, Matt (HOU) 196-for-325 2,437 yds 16/6
20. 2,398 - Hasselbeck, Matt (MIN) 228-for-414 2,398 yds 10/15
DFFL:

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1. 5,051 - Rodgers, Aaron (SD) 408-for-528 5,051 yds 47/5
2. 4,745 - Brees, Drew (CLE) 385-for-522 4,745 yds 51/10
3. 4,728 - Stafford, Matthew (KC) 396-for-525 4,728 yds 46/11
4. 4,135 - Manning, Eli (CHI) 311-for-513 4,135 yds 26/14
5. 4,110 - Newton, Cam (OAK) 373-for-571 4,110 yds 19/15
6. 4,086 - Romo, Tony (GB) 365-for-533 4,086 yds 26/8
7. 4,022 - Ryan, Matt (ATL) 345-for-530 4,022 yds 26/8
8. 3,897 - Sanchez, Mark (DEN) 387-for-595 3,897 yds 22/15
9. 3,716 - Flacco, Joe (BAL) 317-for-546 3,716 yds 24/9
10. 3,694 - Dalton, Andy (NE) 324-for-521 3,694 yds 22/11
11. 3,641 - Brady, Tom (NYG) 315-for-466 3,641 yds 29/6
12. 3,521 - Freeman, Josh (CAR) 370-for-604 3,521 yds 16/21
13. 3,417 - Rivers, Philip (DAL) 281-for-496 3,417 yds 20/20
14. 3,409 - Roethlisberger, Ben (PIT) 315-for-586 3,409 yds 19/19
15. 3,408 - Hasselbeck, Matt (SF) 273-for-394 3,408 yds 29/7
16. 2,895 - Vick, Michael (TB) 250-for-407 2,895 yds 17/10
17. 2,659 - Orton, Kyle (NYJ) 271-for-543 2,659 yds 8/15
18. 2,455 - McCoy, Colt (MIA) 213-for-459 2,455 yds 12/13
19. 2,411 - McNabb, Donovan (TEN) 237-for-492 2,411 yds 7/12
20. 2,343 - Kolb, Kevin (WAS) 209-for-327 2,343 yds 13/8
We only had 1 5K passer across all the leagues (3 in NFL) and about 30% less 4K passers.

One of the things mentioned above is not leaning so heavily to the conservative setting in the play calling scripts to force run, run, run while ahead in the second half quite as much. We may also look at scaling down the time range between plays if finding not enough offense production in sim within the amount of plays run against the clock.

I'll post some others, but before I dig into the game simulator a bit again prior to our sim season, this is a good place to post things. We won't have major changes, so you can suggest them for posterity, but it'll mostly be small tweaks aimed at improved game stat results comparable to reality.
Official Statement from the Commissioner's Office
Goodell
Posts: 3780
Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2008 3:44 am

Re: 2012 Game Simulation Updates

Post by Goodell »

Here's the top NFL rushers last year by yards:

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Name	Team	G	Rush	Yds	Avg	TD
Maurice Jones-Drew	JAC	16	343	1606	4.7	8
Ray Rice	BAL	16	291	1364	4.7	12
Michael Turner	ATL	16	301	1340	4.5	11
LeSean McCoy	PHI	15	273	1309	4.8	17
Arian Foster	HOU	13	278	1224	4.4	10
Frank Gore	SFO	16	282	1211	4.3	8
Marshawn Lynch	SEA	15	285	1204	4.2	12
Willis McGahee	DEN	15	249	1199	4.8	4
Steven Jackson	STL	15	260	1145	4.4	5
Ryan Mathews	SDG	14	222	1091	4.9	6
Reggie Bush	MIA	15	216	1086	5	6
Cedric Benson	CIN	15	273	1067	3.9	6
Shonn Greene	NYJ	16	253	1054	4.2	6
Chris Johnson	TEN	16	262	1047	4	4
Beanie Wells	ARI	14	245	1047	4.3	10
Matt Forte	CHI	12	203	997	4.9	3
Michael Bush	OAK	16	256	977	3.8	7
Adrian Peterson	MIN	12	208	970	4.7	12
Ben Tate	HOU	15	175	942	5.4	4
Fred Jackson	BUF	10	170	934	5.5	6
AFFL:

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1. 1,450 - Rice, Ray (GB) 243-1,450 yds (6 ave) 8 TD
2. 1,238 - Turner, Michael (PHI) 290-1,238 yds (4.3 ave) 10 TD
3. 1,186 - Mathews, Ryan (SD) 240-1,186 yds (4.9 ave) 9 TD
4. 1,085 - Foster, Arian (GB) 205-1,085 yds (5.3 ave) 11 TD
5. 1,065 - Benson, Cedric (CHI) 280-1,065 yds (3.8 ave) 7 TD
6. 1,064 - Jones-Drew, Maurice (SF) 248-1,064 yds (4.3 ave) 4 TD
7. 1,043 - Bush, Reggie (DAL) 214-1,043 yds (4.9 ave) 7 TD
8. 1,009 - McCoy, LeSean (TB) 237-1,009 yds (4.3 ave) 6 TD
9. 961 - Wells, Beanie (HOU) 204-961 yds (4.7 ave) 8 TD
10. 948 - McGahee, Willis (ATL) 208-948 yds (4.6 ave) 4 TD
11. 924 - Jackson, Steven (CIN) 206-924 yds (4.5 ave) 5 TD
12. 914 - Jackson, Fred (DAL) 147-914 yds (6.2 ave) 9 TD
13. 898 - Williams, DeAngelo (NYJ) 163-898 yds (5.5 ave) 3 TD
14. 878 - Peterson, Adrian (ATL) 176-878 yds (5 ave) 9 TD
15. 859 - Greene, Shonn (HOU) 209-859 yds (4.1 ave) 10 TD
16. 814 - Johnson, Chris (NYG) 224-814 yds (3.6 ave) 2 TD
17. 754 - Mendenhall, Rashard (WAS) 196-754 yds (3.8 ave) 2 TD
18. 731 - Gore, Frank (OAK) 183-731 yds (4 ave) 7 TD
19. 728 - Stewart, Jonathan (SEA) 154-728 yds (4.7 ave) 3 TD
20. 681 - Bush, Michael (CIN) 186-681 yds (3.7 ave) 5 TD

CFFL:

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1. 1,491 - Turner, Michael (NO) 277-1,491 yds (5.4 ave) 16 TD
2. 1,463 - Jones-Drew, Maurice (BAL) 320-1,463 yds (4.6 ave) 5 TD
3. 1,281 - Foster, Arian (TEN) 270-1,281 yds (4.7 ave) 10 TD
4. 1,138 - Rice, Ray (BUF) 235-1,138 yds (4.8 ave) 2 TD
5. 1,089 - Gore, Frank (SF) 259-1,089 yds (4.2 ave) 12 TD
6. 1,071 - McCoy, LeSean (PHI) 245-1,071 yds (4.4 ave) 8 TD
7. 1,065 - Wells, Beanie (NO) 203-1,065 yds (5.2 ave) 4 TD
8. 1,003 - Jackson, Steven (CLE) 232-1,003 yds (4.3 ave) 5 TD
9. 964 - Greene, Shonn (DAL) 239-964 yds (4 ave) 3 TD
10. 936 - Peterson, Adrian (MIN) 211-936 yds (4.4 ave) 10 TD
11. 922 - McGahee, Willis (CIN) 188-922 yds (4.9 ave) 1 TD
12. 890 - Forte, Matt (NYG) 185-890 yds (4.8 ave) 5 TD
13. 870 - Mendenhall, Rashard (DET) 191-870 yds (4.6 ave) 8 TD
14. 861 - Bush, Michael (WAS) 247-861 yds (3.5 ave) 10 TD
15. 803 - Johnson, Chris (NE) 225-803 yds (3.6 ave) 6 TD
16. 746 - Lynch, Marshawn (BUF) 177-746 yds (4.2 ave) 3 TD
17. 746 - Jackson, Fred (KC) 149-746 yds (5 ave) 2 TD
18. 739 - Williams, DeAngelo (ARI) 164-739 yds (4.5 ave) 4 TD
19. 708 - Benson, Cedric (JAC) 197-708 yds (3.6 ave) 5 TD
20. 704 - Blount, LeGarrette (DAL) 169-704 yds (4.2 ave) 4 TD
DFFL:

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1. 1,288 - McCoy, LeSean (ATL) 261-1,288 yds (4.9 ave) 12 TD
2. 1,257 - Lynch, Marshawn (BUF) 268-1,257 yds (4.7 ave) 4 TD
3. 1,213 - Gore, Frank (SF) 256-1,213 yds (4.7 ave) 10 TD
4. 1,107 - Jones-Drew, Maurice (NYG) 223-1,107 yds (5 ave) 3 TD
5. 1,082 - Forte, Matt (KC) 215-1,082 yds (5 ave) 5 TD
6. 1,069 - Foster, Arian (NE) 241-1,069 yds (4.4 ave) 6 TD
7. 1,045 - Turner, Michael (DET) 238-1,045 yds (4.4 ave) 8 TD
8. 1,005 - Jackson, Steven (WAS) 248-1,005 yds (4.1 ave) 6 TD
9. 984 - Rice, Ray (DAL) 202-984 yds (4.9 ave) 7 TD
10. 942 - Jackson, Fred (IND) 177-942 yds (5.3 ave) 5 TD
11. 938 - Johnson, Chris (TEN) 239-938 yds (3.9 ave) 2 TD
12. 927 - Stewart, Jonathan (CAR) 192-927 yds (4.8 ave) 3 TD
13. 830 - Bradshaw, Ahmad (CLE) 189-830 yds (4.4 ave) 9 TD
14. 804 - Greene, Shonn (JAC) 202-804 yds (4 ave) 2 TD
15. 804 - Mathews, Ryan (CIN) 185-804 yds (4.3 ave) 6 TD
16. 801 - Mendenhall, Rashard (BAL) 219-801 yds (3.7 ave) 7 TD
17. 780 - Thomas, Pierre (CLE) 191-780 yds (4.1 ave) 5 TD
18. 769 - Williams, DeAngelo (PHI) 152-769 yds (5.1 ave) 5 TD
19. 767 - Benson, Cedric (SF) 175-767 yds (4.4 ave) 9 TD
20. 750 - Murray, DeMarco (TB) 132-750 yds (5.7 ave) 5 TD
Despite our game simulator probably being more conservative when originally programmed 5-6 years ago than today's wide open NFL with much more passing, it looks like we might even be a little behind on for ground performance also with very few sim rushers approaching the total carries by the NFL's most utilized rushers.

If both passing and rushers are down in sim from reality, probably do need to speed up our sim offenses to get more total plays involved within our sim games (other than situations where a team would be intentionally milking the clock in the 4th quarter way up).
Official Statement from the Commissioner's Office
Goodell
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Re: 2012 Game Simulation Updates

Post by Goodell »

QB Rushing Yards in NFL:

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 Name	Team	G	Rush	Yds	Avg	TD
Cam Newton	CAR	16	126	706	5.6	14
Tim Tebow	DEN	14	122	660	5.4	6
Michael Vick	PHI	13	76	589	7.8	1
Aaron Rodgers	GNB	15	60	257	4.3	3
Josh Freeman	TAM	15	55	238	4.3	4
Christian Ponder	MIN	11	28	219	7.8	0
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	16	56	215	3.8	0
Colt McCoy	CLE	13	61	212	3.5	0
Alex Smith	SFO	16	52	179	3.4	2
Joe Webb	MIN	11	22	154	7	2
  
AFFL:

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1. 458 - Newton, Cam (CLE) 74-458 yds (6.2 ave) 4 TD
2. 369 - Vick, Michael (IND) 49-369 yds (7.5 ave) 3 TD
3. 239 - Rodgers, Aaron (ARI) 55-239 yds (4.3 ave) 1 TD
4. 202 - Freeman, Josh (MIN) 49-202 yds (4.1 ave) 2 TD
5. 183 - Fitzpatrick, Ryan (NO) 39-183 yds (4.7 ave) 1 TD
6. 150 - Smith, Alex (SF) 46-150 yds (3.3 ave) 1 TD
7. 146 - Ponder, Christian (WAS) 15-146 yds (9.7 ave) 0 TD
8. 124 - Dalton, Andy (OAK) 28-124 yds (4.4 ave) 0 TD
9. 121 - Henne, Chad (SEA) 19-121 yds (6.4 ave) 7 TD
10. 107 - Hanie, Caleb (CIN) 16-107 yds (6.7 ave) 1 TD
CFFL:

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1. 431 - Newton, Cam (JAC) 72-431 yds (6 ave) 5 TD
2. 429 - Vick, Michael (NYG) 56-429 yds (7.7 ave) 1 TD
3. 253 - Rodgers, Aaron (GB) 61-253 yds (4.1 ave) 3 TD
4. 219 - Freeman, Josh (TEN) 53-219 yds (4.1 ave) 5 TD
5. 184 - Fitzpatrick, Ryan (CIN) 45-184 yds (4.1 ave) 0 TD
6. 157 - McCoy, Colt (MIA) 38-157 yds (4.1 ave) 0 TD
7. 142 - Sanchez, Mark (BAL) 37-142 yds (3.8 ave) 1 TD
8. 133 - Smith, Alex (CLE) 39-133 yds (3.4 ave) 0 TD
9. 130 - Painter, Curtis (DAL) 24-130 yds (5.4 ave) 1 TD
10. 130 - Ryan, Matt (DET) 43-130 yds (3 ave) 1 TD
DFFL:

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1. 539 - Vick, Michael (TB) 73-539 yds (7.4 ave) 3 TD
2. 295 - Newton, Cam (OAK) 66-295 yds (4.5 ave) 6 TD
3. 199 - Freeman, Josh (CAR) 41-199 yds (4.9 ave) 4 TD
4. 164 - Dalton, Andy (NE) 39-164 yds (4.2 ave) 2 TD
5. 138 - Rodgers, Aaron (SD) 34-138 yds (4.1 ave) 1 TD
6. 136 - McCoy, Colt (MIA) 33-136 yds (4.1 ave) 1 TD
7. 117 - Sanchez, Mark (DEN) 35-117 yds (3.3 ave) 2 TD
8. 104 - Ryan, Matt (ATL) 43-104 yds (2.4 ave) 1 TD
9. 97 - McNabb, Donovan (TEN) 22-97 yds (4.4 ave) 1 TD
10. 84 - Hasselbeck, Matt (SF) 29-84 yds (2.9 ave) 0 TD
With more running QBs these days, I think our sim results might need to factor QB attempts more than it currently does as well.
Official Statement from the Commissioner's Office
Goodell
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Re: 2012 Game Simulation Updates

Post by Goodell »

Receivers we're not too far off, as we have had less targets on depth chart than QBs hit in reality, so despite QB numbers being down overall receivers were closer. We'll attempt to bring in more targets for receptions/rushes beyond the depth chart this year as mentioned. Our receivers actually were catching more than reality because of the limited number of sim targets for a sim QB.

NFL:

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Name	Team	G	Rec	Yds	Avg	TD		Fum	FumL
Calvin Johnson	DET	16	96	1681	17.5	16		1	1
Wes Welker	NWE	16	122	1569	12.9	9		0	0
Victor Cruz	NYG	16	82	1536	18.7	9		1	1
Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	16	80	1411	17.6	8		0	0
Steve Smith	CAR	16	79	1394	17.6	7		3	2
Rob Gronkowski	NWE	16	90	1327	14.7	17
Jimmy Graham	NOR	16	99	1310	13.2	11
Roddy White	ATL	16	100	1296	13	8		0	0
Jordy Nelson	GNB	16	68	1263	18.6	15		0	0
Brandon Marshall	MIA	16	81	1214	15	6		1	1
Mike Wallace	PIT	16	72	1193	16.6	8		1	1
Hakeem Nicks	NYG	15	76	1192	15.7	7		0	0
AFFL:

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1. 1,565 - Nicks, Hakeem (JAC) 124-1,565 yds (12.6 ave) 9 TD
2. 1,527 - Johnson, Calvin (HOU) 95-1,527 yds (16.1 ave) 17 TD
3. 1,471 - Welker, Wes (MIA) 118-1,471 yds (12.5 ave) 11 TD
4. 1,350 - Jackson, Vincent (STL) 97-1,350 yds (13.9 ave) 9 TD
5. 1,345 - Bowe, Dwayne (MIN) 111-1,345 yds (12.1 ave) 6 TD
6. 1,301 - Smith, Steve (SEA) 101-1,301 yds (12.9 ave) 7 TD
7. 1,298 - Marshall, Brandon (KC) 117-1,298 yds (11.1 ave) 6 TD
8. 1,277 - White, Roddy (DEN) 103-1,277 yds (12.4 ave) 6 TD
9. 1,251 - Cruz, Victor (DET) 69-1,251 yds (18.1 ave) 9 TD
10. 1,214 - Wallace, Mike (CHI) 97-1,214 yds (12.5 ave) 6 TD
CFFL:

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1. 1,736 - Johnson, Calvin (WAS) 118-1,736 yds (14.7 ave) 14 TD
2. 1,474 - Harvin, Percy (GB) 126-1,474 yds (11.7 ave) 8 TD
3. 1,355 - White, Roddy (DEN) 115-1,355 yds (11.8 ave) 6 TD
4. 1,339 - Welker, Wes (STL) 133-1,339 yds (10.1 ave) 4 TD
5. 1,307 - Marshall, Brandon (SD) 113-1,307 yds (11.6 ave) 8 TD
6. 1,215 - Garcon, Pierre (GB) 93-1,215 yds (13.1 ave) 6 TD
7. 1,155 - Smith, Steve (PHI) 72-1,155 yds (16 ave) 9 TD
8. 1,115 - Davis, Vernon (NE) 79-1,115 yds (14.1 ave) 19 TD
9. 1,080 - Fitzgerald, Larry (DET) 72-1,080 yds (15 ave) 9 TD
10. 1,059 - Gronkowski, Rob (SF) 73-1,059 yds (14.5 ave) 12 TD
DFFL:

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1. 1,864 - Welker, Wes (OAK) 151-1,864 yds (12.3 ave) 12 TD
2. 1,777 - Johnson, Calvin (SD) 131-1,777 yds (13.6 ave) 15 TD
3. 1,398 - Marshall, Brandon (DEN) 128-1,398 yds (10.9 ave) 8 TD
4. 1,390 - Smith, Steve (CAR) 114-1,390 yds (12.2 ave) 9 TD
5. 1,386 - White, Roddy (ATL) 117-1,386 yds (11.8 ave) 11 TD
6. 1,377 - Fitzgerald, Larry (KC) 98-1,377 yds (14.1 ave) 10 TD
7. 1,336 - Nelson, Jordy (CLE) 93-1,336 yds (14.4 ave) 18 TD
8. 1,228 - Green, A.J. (STL) 100-1,228 yds (12.3 ave) 2 TD
9. 1,182 - Gronkowski, Rob (CHI) 76-1,182 yds (15.6 ave) 15 TD
10. 1,177 - Johnson, Stevie (BUF) 118-1,177 yds (10 ave) 1 TD
Official Statement from the Commissioner's Office
Goodell
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Re: 2012 Game Simulation Updates

Post by Goodell »

Tight Ends have tended to get more than their share of TD passes their way. Whether a pass is going to be a TD or not is entirely driven by the QB's game update within the red zone, but when none of his receivers have a TD in their game update it picks one of them to get that QBs driven TD.

NFL

Code: Select all

Name	Team	G	Rec	Yds	TD
Rob Gronkowski	NWE	16	90	1327	17
Calvin Johnson	DET	16	96	1681	16
Jordy Nelson	GNB	16	68	1263	15
Jimmy Graham	NOR	16	99	1310	11
Laurent Robinson	DAL	14	54	858	11
Wes Welker	NWE	16	122	1569	9
Vincent Jackson	SDG	16	60	1106	9
Victor Cruz	NYG	16	82	1536	9
Dez Bryant	DAL	15	63	928	9
Greg Jennings	GNB	13	67	949	9
AFFL:

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1. 17 - Johnson, Calvin (HOU) 95-1,527 yds (16.1 ave) 17 TD
2. 17 - Davis, Vernon (GB) 85-1,012 yds (11.9 ave) 17 TD
3. 16 - Cook, Jared (SD) 62-809 yds (13 ave) 16 TD
4. 14 - Olsen, Greg (NE) 59-779 yds (13.2 ave) 14 TD
5. 13 - Gronkowski, Rob (DEN) 76-1,075 yds (14.1 ave) 13 TD
6. 12 - Celek, Brent (DET) 45-660 yds (14.7 ave) 12 TD
7. 11 - Pettigrew, Brandon (CLE) 77-865 yds (11.2 ave) 11 TD
8. 11 - Fitzgerald, Larry (DAL) 79-1,098 yds (13.9 ave) 11 TD
9. 11 - Gresham, Jermaine (NO) 54-580 yds (10.7 ave) 11 TD
10. 11 - Rudolph, Kyle (ARI) 30-313 yds (10.4 ave) 11 TD
CFFL:

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1. 19 - Davis, Vernon (NE) 79-1,115 yds (14.1 ave) 19 TD
2. 15 - Miller, Zach (GB) 38-436 yds (11.5 ave) 15 TD
3. 14 - Johnson, Calvin (WAS) 118-1,736 yds (14.7 ave) 14 TD
4. 13 - Celek, Brent (PHI) 50-692 yds (13.8 ave) 13 TD
5. 12 - Gronkowski, Rob (SF) 73-1,059 yds (14.5 ave) 12 TD
6. 12 - Meachem, Robert (NO) 61-749 yds (12.3 ave) 12 TD
7. 11 - Nelson, Jordy (MIN) 76-929 yds (12.2 ave) 11 TD
8. 9 - Smith, Steve (PHI) 72-1,155 yds (16 ave) 9 TD
9. 9 - Fitzgerald, Larry (DET) 72-1,080 yds (15 ave) 9 TD
10. 9 - Dickson, Ed (WAS) 39-420 yds (10.8 ave) 9 TD
DFFL:

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1. 20 - Witten, Jason (KC) 78-1,019 yds (13.1 ave) 20 TD
2. 18 - Nelson, Jordy (CLE) 93-1,336 yds (14.4 ave) 18 TD
3. 15 - Gates, Antonio (SD) 62-782 yds (12.6 ave) 15 TD
4. 15 - Johnson, Calvin (SD) 131-1,777 yds (13.6 ave) 15 TD
5. 15 - Gronkowski, Rob (CHI) 76-1,182 yds (15.6 ave) 15 TD
6. 13 - Shockey, Jeremy (NYG) 47-547 yds (11.6 ave) 13 TD
7. 12 - Welker, Wes (OAK) 151-1,864 yds (12.3 ave) 12 TD
8. 11 - White, Roddy (ATL) 117-1,386 yds (11.8 ave) 11 TD
9. 10 - Gonzalez, Tony (GB) 88-1,030 yds (11.7 ave) 10 TD
10. 10 - Winslow, Kellen (DEN) 72-807 yds (11.2 ave) 10 TD
Probably need more digging to root out that TE-heavy leaning on passes by the QB when it's looking for someone to give the reception to. Without a WR/TE having a TD in their update, whether they catch that in the endzone or not is all about trying to get the QB his numbers and less about the receiver there but would still like to see that go more WR than it has been, although guys like Gronkowski and Graham rack up the TDs in their updates and deservedly will get a lot of those and more and more TEs are amongst the best receiving options which tilts things in their favor when a TD pass up for grabs. The bringing in of additional receiver update beyond the depth chart may help more evenly distribute those also if more guys are coming into the sim with real reception TDs in their updates to rightfully grab theirs.
Official Statement from the Commissioner's Office
Goodell
Posts: 3780
Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2008 3:44 am

Re: 2012 Game Simulation Updates

Post by Goodell »

Here are the NFL's kick and punt return averages for top individuals last year:

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Kick Returner Team G   KR  Yds  Avg  Long  TD    PR  Yds  Avg  Long  TD    
 Joe McKnight NYJ 15   34  1073  31.6  107  1    5  26  5.2  12  0    
 Randall Cobb GNB 15   34  941  27.7  108  1    26  295  11.3  80  1    
 Ted Ginn Jr. SFO 14   29  800  27.6  102  1    38  466  12.3  55  1    
 Richard Goodman SDG 16   34  936  27.5  105  1    0  0  N/A  0  0    
 Antonio Brown PIT 16   27  737  27.3  52  0    30  325  10.8  60  1    
 Darren Sproles NOR 16   40  1089  27.2  92  0    29  294  10.1  72  1    
 Sammie Stroughter TAM 6   20  540  27.0  78  0    0  0  N/A  0  0    
 Kealoha Pilares CAR 12   23  590  25.7  101  1    0  0  N/A  0  0    
 Jerious Norwood STL 9   24  611  25.5  47  0    0  0  N/A  0  0    
 Stefan Logan DET 16   33  832  25.2  42  0    37  301  8.1  28  0  

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Punt Returner Team G   KR  Yds  Avg  Long  TD    PR  Yds  Avg  Long  TD    
 Devin Hester CHI 16   33  723  21.9  98  1    28  454  16.2  82  2    
 Patrick Peterson ARI 16   0  0  N/A  0  0    44  699  15.9  99  4    
 Javier Arenas KAN 15   17  362  21.3  35  0    32  410  12.8  37  0    
 Ted Ginn Jr. SFO 14   29  800  27.6  102  1    38  466  12.3  55  1    
 Davone Bess MIA 16   1  0  0.0  0  0    37  442  11.9  25  0    
 Joshua Cribbs CLE 16   39  974  25.0  63  0    34  388  11.4  84  1    
 Randall Cobb GNB 15   34  941  27.7  108  1    26  295  11.3  80  1    
 Leon Washington SEA 16   43  1084  25.2  54  0    41  464  11.3  37  0    
 Jeremy Kerley NYJ 14   1  15  15.0  15  0    29  317  10.9  53  0    
 Antonio Brown PIT 16   27  737  27.3  52  0    30  325  10.8  60  1  
The new NFL rules with kickoffs went into effect last year and we wanted to examine the impacts before changing too much. I think after a year observing we probably need to have more default touchbacks on kickoffs outside of making sure we incorporate strong game update returns when they happen. There was some other talk last year about incorporating number of kicker touchbacks, etc. and some of that may incorporate complications (such as just about anyone kicking in Denver will almost always have touchbacks but what if Denver kicker at sim sea level, kickers in high scoring games will have more chances for touchbacks than in low scoring real games, etc.) and adjustment to game data input processes, so might be easiest to lean much more toward touchback as a default on kickoffs outside of allowing a great return update to have a chance or two at incorporating that playmaking game update for returners.

We'll keep the one kick/punt returner in the depth chart, but will attempt to bring in other returners if they have game updates -- particularly for big kick returns and especially as punt returners where you see many more real punt returns.
Official Statement from the Commissioner's Office
Goodell
Posts: 3780
Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2008 3:44 am

Re: 2012 Game Simulation Updates

Post by Goodell »

NFL punt averages:

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Name	Team	G	Punt	Yds	Avg	Long	In20	Blk
Andy Lee	SFO	16	78	3970	50.9	68	28	1
Shane Lechler	OAK	16	78	3960	50.8	80	27	0
Brandon Fields	MIA	16	78	3810	48.8	70	32	0
Thomas Morstead	NOR	16	46	2224	48.3	64	13	1
Brian Moorman	BUF	16	72	3472	48.2	66	20	1
Mike Scifres	SDG	16	47	2234	47.5	71	17	0
Britton Colquitt	DEN	16	101	4783	47.4	66	33	0
Pat McAfee	IND	16	88	4102	46.6	64	21	1
Jon Ryan	SEA	16	95	4431	46.6	77	34	0
Zoltan Mesko	NWE	16	57	2648	46.5	65	24	0
AFFL:

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0. Lechler, Shane (TEN) 4832/104 - 46.5 ave
1. Zastudil, Dave (NYJ) 451/10 - 45.1 ave
2. Moorman, Brian (BUF) 4828/107 - 45.1 ave
3. Morstead, Thomas (PHI) 4767/107 - 44.6 ave
4. Podlesh, Adam (JAC) 3828/86 - 44.5 ave
5. McAfee, Pat (SEA) 4722/106 - 44.5 ave
6. Fields, Brandon (DEN) 3250/73 - 44.5 ave
7. Kluwe, Chris (MIN) 5132/116 - 44.2 ave
8. Lee, Andy (SF) 2911/66 - 44.1 ave
9. Colquitt, Dustin (KC) 2246/51 - 44 ave
10. Masthay, Tim (MIA) 4391/100 - 43.9 ave
CFFL:

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0. Lechler, Shane (ARI) 5350/111 - 48.2 ave
1. Lee, Andy (SF) 3193/68 - 47 ave
2. Fields, Brandon (MIA) 4334/93 - 46.6 ave
3. McAfee, Pat (IND) 5538/120 - 46.2 ave
4. Colquitt, Britton (DEN) 4969/109 - 45.6 ave
5. Morstead, Thomas (MIN) 3962/87 - 45.5 ave
6. Masthay, Tim (PIT) 3757/83 - 45.3 ave
7. Moorman, Brian (BUF) 4362/97 - 45 ave
8. Ryan, Jon (JAC) 3922/88 - 44.6 ave
9. Mesko, Zoltan (TEN) 3449/78 - 44.2 ave
10. Colquitt, Dustin (WAS) 2525/58 - 43.5 ave
DFFL:

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0. Lechler, Shane (TEN) 4832/104 - 46.5 ave
1. Zastudil, Dave (NYJ) 451/10 - 45.1 ave
2. Moorman, Brian (BUF) 4828/107 - 45.1 ave
3. Morstead, Thomas (PHI) 4767/107 - 44.6 ave
4. Podlesh, Adam (JAC) 3828/86 - 44.5 ave
5. McAfee, Pat (SEA) 4722/106 - 44.5 ave
6. Fields, Brandon (DEN) 3250/73 - 44.5 ave
7. Kluwe, Chris (MIN) 5132/116 - 44.2 ave
8. Lee, Andy (SF) 2911/66 - 44.1 ave
9. Colquitt, Dustin (KC) 2246/51 - 44 ave
10. Masthay, Tim (MIA) 4391/100 - 43.9 ave
Some of these might be situational differences. For example, if a punter is on a bad team in reality and has a long field ahead of him in reality with high punt averages, but the same punter is on a great sim team that usually drives that ball to a shorter field, that could impact some differences because of situations.

However, we may not be punting as far on average and need to look at that as well as within the 20s, etc.
Official Statement from the Commissioner's Office
Goodell
Posts: 3780
Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2008 3:44 am

Re: 2012 Game Simulation Updates

Post by Goodell »

For kickers, I'm going to try to take a close look at the FG routines and tighten up where needed. I think some sense that quality kicker not terribly impactful in the sim in the past. A lot of the good/bad calculation utilized percentages and random numbers within certain ranges being good/bad which with a small sample of kicks might not have the desired outcome always.

If the stats are right, probably don't take enough long FG attempts and make too many generally. Some of the extreme nature of the competitive balance in most leagues might also mess with kicker differences from reality to simulation where we tend to have more teams on both extremes where really bad teams will get much less scoring opportunities than real teams perhaps, while our really great sim teams might stick it in the endzone a whole lot more and leave much less FG opportunities. But I'll look at if FGs not being attempted enough and if some tweaks to have our percentages more closely align. Although this is always a little tricky where a kicker might miss a 30 yarder and make a 50 yarder in reality where he gets one sim attempt at 40 yards. Or what if the real kicker misses 2 over 50 but makes a 30 yarder, and in the sim gets a couple chances at short FGs where it wouldn't necessarily penalize him at short distances for the long misses in reality. We've previously attempted to account for misses within real games and incorporate those, but if if a kicker's attempts don't quite match up in the sim doesn't always work out that way. In general, we probably have fewer attempts at closer distances and are much more automatic than reality where probably need more long attempts and more misses overall.

NFL:

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Name Team G   0-19  20-29  30-39  40-49  50+  FGM  FGA  Pct  Lng    XPM  XPA  Pct    
 Matt Bryant ATL 16   2-2  9-9  9-9  5-7  2-2  27  29  93.1  51    45  45  100.0    
 Connor Barth TAM 16   0-0  5-5  6-6  13-14  2-3  26  28  92.9  55    23  23  100.0    
 Josh Scobee JAC 16   1-1  5-5  5-5  7-8  5-6  23  25  92.0  55    24  24  100.0    
 Rob Bironas TEN 16   0-0  5-5  9-10  9-10  6-7  29  32  90.6  53    34  34  100.0    
 Alex Henery PHI 16   0-0  10-10  9-11  4-4  1-2  24  27  88.9  51    46  46  100.0    
 Sebastian Janikowski OAK 15   1-1  8-8  5-5  10-11  7-10  31  35  88.6  63    36  36  100.0    
 Robbie Gould CHI 16   0-0  10-10  6-6  6-10  6-6  28  32  87.5  57    37  37  100.0    
 Mike Nugent CIN 16   0-0  14-14  5-8  14-16  0-0  33  38  86.8  49    33  34  97.1    
 Dan Bailey DAL 16   1-1  8-9  11-11  10-12  2-4  32  37  86.5  51    39  39  100.0    
 Mason Crosby GNB 16   1-1  4-5  14-14  3-5  2-3  24  28  85.7  58    68  69  98.6 
Official Statement from the Commissioner's Office
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